Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250454
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1154 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight-Friday morning:
Convection this evening is complicated by MCV moving across
forecast area at this time. Anticipate that storms associated with
MCV will persist into the evening in southeast KS. Storms in
western KS will eventually work into central KS but weaken. Best
chance/coverage of storms by late night/early Friday will be NE of
area in the better moisture transport/baroclinic zone. However
moisture axis and weak moisture transport lingers across most of
forecast area, and suspect there will be isolated showers/
thunderstorm sprinkled across the entire at daybreak. Virtually
all models increase precipitation chances in southeast KS during
the morning which then linger into the afternoon.

Friday afternoon-Friday evening:
Highs on Friday should be suppressed by lingering precipitation
and clouds/while far western sections are warmer duration to
increased insolation. Anticipating storms will linger/expand
Friday afternoon with potential boundary across the area. Strong-
severe storms are possible, but this would require clearing and
heating to develop instability and not sure if that will happen. A
weak boundary or two is probable, but location is problematic to
focus chances for rain.

Saturday-Sunday:
Stray afternoon storms possible on Saturday in southeast KS,
otherwise dry and warmer conditions are expected as upper ridge
moves across the area. Heat indices should stay out of the triple
digits, although mid-upper 90s are probable. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Western trough shifts east and weakens this period. With mainly
weak and diffluent upper flow, will have multiple chances for
western KS storms to and drift into the area. In addition, low
level moisture will remain in place for much of this period, so
isolated storms also possible in peak heating, especially in
southeast KS. Temperatures could trend warmer with subsequent
updates, but low level moisture could also suppress maxes and
initialization grids looked reasonable for a first guess.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Main concern will be convective trends overnight.

Cluster of storms that developed over northwest KS has tracked
into central KS and is continuing to track east and shows no signs
of stopping. KSLN looks to be the next site impacted with 40-50mb
winds and heavy rain. Confidence in storms affecting other sites
are much lower, so will run with a VCTS for now. If this area
holds together it would make it into southeast KS by around
10-11z, and KICT after 08z. After this activity pushes east, not
very confident we`ll see much in the way of storms as we get into
some subsidence. The exception maybe any outflow boundaries that
are floating around.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  89  67  95 /  20  20  20   0
Hutchinson      66  92  65  95 /  20  20  20   0
Newton          66  88  66  95 /  20  20  20   0
ElDorado        64  86  66  92 /  30  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   67  85  66  93 /  20  30  20  10
Russell         65  93  63  95 /  50  20  10   0
Great Bend      64  92  63  94 /  50  20  10   0
Salina          67  94  66  97 /  40  20  10   0
McPherson       66  92  65  96 /  30  20  20   0
Coffeyville     67  83  67  91 /  50  40  30  20
Chanute         65  82  66  91 /  50  30  30  20
Iola            65  82  66  91 /  50  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    66  83  67  91 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL



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