Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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586
FXUS63 KICT 182003
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Compact upper low is currently spinning over northeast IA with a
surface low approaching the Ohio Valley. On the backside of this
system, strong northwest winds are in place across the central and
southern Plains.

Surface ridge will continue to slide east tonight and will finally
bring a drastic decrease to our winds. Temps on Thu will be fairly
similar to where they are now, but with much less wind which will
make it much more comfortable. Attention will then turn to our
next upper low which is currently approaching the CA coast.

This feature is expected to continue quickly tracking east and
will be situated over the Four Corners region by Fri afternoon.
Should see temps a few degrees warmer then Thu as we do get into
some return flow. There is still fairly decent model agreement
between the ECMWF and GFS in the track of this system with it
moving out across southeast CO/OK Panhandle by around 12z Sat.
Upper low will then continue to push off to the southeast which
will place much of the forecast area in the wrap around region of
this system. So not looking at much in the way of convection but
much of the area should at least see some rain. How much rainfall
is going to be the difficult part of the forecast over the next
few days. We really don`t get into a prolonged period of return
flow which will limit the potential for heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Confidence in these extended periods is extremely low due to
significant differences in the medium range models.

What`s left of the showers should be coming to an end across
southeast KS Sat night into Sun. While both the GFS and ECMWF try
and take some energy out of the northern Rockies and out into the
northern Plains for Mon, the GFS is quite a bit faster moving it
east compared to the ECMWF. This results in the GFS pushing a cold
front through the forecast area Mon night into Tue with the ECMWF
moving it through about 24 hours later. This leads to very low
confidence with regards to rain chances. About the only thing we
can say with confidence through these periods, is that we are not
looking at any kind of prolonged period of warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites. Winds will continue to
be the issue through 02z. Howling winds of 30-40 mph and gusts
from 35-50 mph will continue through the afternoon before
becoming light towards 06z. A gradual increase to around 10-15
knots will be noted tomorrow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

For the first time in a while, we are not looking at any fire
danger concerns over the next several days.

Surface high pressure will slide over the area tonight into Thu
and will finally bring some lighter winds to the entire area.
Winds will flip around to the southeast on Fri but will generally
remain in the 10 to 15 mph range. Rain chances are still expected
to increase for Sat with a good chance that much of the area will
see some rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  35  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      64  33  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          62  32  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        62  32  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   66  33  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         63  30  63  37 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      64  31  63  38 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          61  31  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       63  31  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     66  33  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         61  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            60  31  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



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