Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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571 FXUS63 KICT 291719 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A stray showers/storm possible this afternoon across central KS - Severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/evening - Another round of severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon/evening - The active weather pattern continues into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 As of 230 AM, the midlevel low responsible for Sunday`s severe weather continues to advance northeastward across the mid-MO valley. The associated surface trough axis has pushed through the entire forecast area, leaving a dry forecast for the remain of the nighttime hours. Broad midlevel troughing remains across the southwest US, which should foster weak lee cyclogenesis later this afternoon. A weak low-level mass response is expected across western KS. By mid to late afternoon, a weak inverted surface trough is progged to extend from west-central KS into central/north central KS. There may be just enough surface convergence along this axis for a few high-based showers/storms to develop within peak heating. A substantially dry sub-cloud layer will limit overall rain amounts with any shower/storm. Otherwise, high temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 70s/near 80 across central KS to the low to mid 70s across south central and southeast KS. Transitioning into tonight and Tuesday, a midlevel low will come ashore across the Pacific northwest with an attendant 120 kt speed max. Further deepening of the surface low across the high Plains will surge low-level moisture northward with dew points returning to the 60s for most locations. By mid to late afternoon, the surface low will remain across southeast CO with the inverted trough extending into north central KS. A sharp dryline will reside in the neighborhood of Highway 81/Interstate 135. Model guidance lifts a lead shortwave trough across northern KS/southern NE during the afternoon/early evening. This should lead to widespread thunderstorm development across NE. Further south across central KS, more capping concerns should limit storm coverage to more of an isolated to scattered nature. The background environment will support supercell storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and a long, veering hodograph yielding 40-50 kt of effective shear. Any storm that does develop will be capable of large hail up to baseball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph. As the Pacific front overtakes the dryline into the late evening hours, an increase in storm coverage is expected, especially east of Interstate 135. Storm mode is likely to transition from supercellular to linear while propagating southeastward into a 40-50 kt LLJ across southeast KS. PW values are forecast to approach 1 inch ahead of the front, which would support additional heavy rain across southeast KS. Given the expansive flooding/river flooding that is ongoing, any additional rainfall will only exacerbate flooding impacts. A Flood Watch may be needed for late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Transitioning into Wednesday, the main midlevel trough will overspread the central Rockies with low-level moisture retreating northward into the eastern half of KS. A sharp dryline is forecast to extend from the Russell/Hays area, southward into western OK. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s are forecast to reside east of this dryline. The background environment will become quite favorable for supercells along the dryline with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and long, veering hodographs yielding ~50 kt of effective shear. Any storm that develops will be capable of all severe weather hazards including, large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and tornadoes. Similar to Tuesday night, as the trough axis overtakes the dryline, more-widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight across eastern KS. The chief concern overnight will be heavy rain and flooding. The main midlevel trough will eject across the central Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. The aforementioned surface trough will reside across eastern KS by afternoon. Additional storm development is expected Thursday afternoon/evening along the front. The active weather pattern looks to continue into the weekend with a series of shortwave trough axis` ejecting into the Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 In general, VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Surface winds will generally remain out of the south or southwest for the remainder of the day with wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots. Overnight into tomorrow morning, marginal LLWS is possible for locations along and north of the I-70 corridor, including KRSL and KSLN. After 15Z, southerly winds are expected to increase, and gusts around 30 to 35 knots are possible by mid-afternoon on Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances increase for much of the area after the end of the TAF period Tuesday afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...JC