Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211132
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

A summer-like weather pattern is expected the next several days,
characteristic of above normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s,
weak flow aloft and relatively weak forcing. Consequently,
periodic thunderstorm predictability is poor the next several
days. Additionally, widespread severe weather episodes are
unlikely given the relatively weak flow and forcing.

Early this morning...Patchy to areas of fog will impact the
region, as surface high pressure and light winds settle south
amidst a nearly saturated low-level airmass. Thinking the best
potential for widespread dense fog will be across far southern
Kansas, Oklahoma and western Kansas. Will continue to monitor for
possible dense fog advisory issuance.

Tonight (Monday night)...Increasing isentropic ascent and
moisture transport could allow for a few storms to venture into
central and north-central Kansas, although lack of large scale
forcing and marginal instability will preclude widespread
activity.

Late Tuesday night thru Friday night...This period will likely
have the best potential for periodic thunderstorm chances across
the forecast area, as subtle pieces of shortwave energy eject
northeast across the Heartland out of a western CONUS longwave
trough. Given weak flow aloft and weak forcing, timing and
coverage or storms will likely be modulated by convective outflows
and other mesoscale features...features the models struggle to
predict accurately. Consequently, predicting the timing and
coverage of these storms will likely be relatively poor, which is
typical of these summer- like patterns. For now ran with 20-40
PoPs throughout this period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

With the mid/upper trough axis finally shifting east, thinking
overall thunderstorm chances will lessen across the forecast area
this weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures look
to continue, as atmospheric thickness remains above normal per GFS
and ECMWF ensemble means.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Widespread stratus and patchy fog will linger for a couple of
hours this morning before mixing out. IFR/LIFR in some locations
early this morning will transition to VFR after 14-16Z across the
area with light southeast winds developing through the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

After one of the coldest Aprils on record, the region is
experiencing one of its warmest Mays on record, with month-to-
date average temperature anomalies 7-10+ degrees above normal. Per
medium range model output and outlooks issued by the Climate
Prediction Center, there is high likelihood above normal
temperatures will continue through month`s end, and even into the
first week or two of June.

There are periodic chances of thunderstorms this week, although
the overall consensus through month`s end and into early June
favors below normal precipitation. This will only aggravate
continued drought conditions across mainly the southwest quarter
of Kansas, extending into central and south-central Kansas,
although recent rains have thankfully helped alleviate some of the
higher-end severe drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  63  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      82  63  88  65 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          80  62  87  65 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        80  62  86  65 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   83  63  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         81  62  88  64 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      81  62  87  64 /   0  10  10  10
Salina          81  63  89  66 /   0  10  10  10
McPherson       82  63  88  65 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     82  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         80  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            80  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    81  61  87  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...ADK


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