Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231120
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

A summer-like pattern is expected the next several days,
characteristic of above normal temperatures, increasing
dewpoints/humidity, and periodic thunderstorm chances. Given the
relatively weak flow and forcing aloft, predicting the timing,
location and coverage of these storm chances will be challenging.
Additionally, the overall potential for widespread severe weather
is low given the weak flow/forcing.

Today-this evening...Increasing mid-level moisture amidst an
unstable and uncapped airmass should support isolated to widely
scattered hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms across
eastern/southeast KS from late this morning through the early
evening. Thinking the best chance will be over far southeast KS.
Another possible area for a few hit-or-miss storms this afternoon-
evening will be generally west of Highway 14 across central &
south-central KS, as a subtle MCV and/or gravity wave from current
High Plains convection approaches from the west. In all
instances, severe weather is not expected given nil deep layer
shear.

Thursday-Friday night...This period will see continued periodic
thunderstorm chances across the forecast area, as a pair of subtle
shortwaves emanating from the southwest CONUS moves over Mid-
America. Wondering if the best chance for a more organized
thunderstorm complex or two will be both Thursday night and Friday
night, due to increased isentropic ascent on the eastern
periphery of warmer temperatures aloft. While widespread severe
weather appears unlikely, weak/modest mid-level flow may support
isolated severe weather occurrences.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Temperature-wise, above normal thickness will allow widespread
low-mid 90s by Friday.

Saturday-Sunday...With mid/upper ridge axis nudging east over the
Heartland, thinking overall thunderstorm chances will be fairly
low this weekend. Above normal temperatures in the 90s will
continue given the above normal atmospheric thickness, along with
spring/summer-like dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

Monday-Wednesday...Model and ensemble consensus, especially the
GFS and GEM, supports shifting the mid/upper ridge east of the
region by early next week, with a longwave trough continuing to
take shape across the western CONUS. This will allow periodic
pieces of shortwave energy to eject northeast over Mid-America for
increased off-and-on thunderstorm chances. Modest flow aloft does
nudge east some, which would favor a possible uptick in severe
weather potential, especially across the western half of KS. Above
normal temperatures in the 80s-90s look to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Light southerly winds this morning will increase by late
morning/early afternoon gusting to around 20 knots or so across
central KS. Further east, widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms may impact southeast KS, mainly during the afternoon
hours but coverage is expected to remain fairly limited. Other
storms may drift east out of western KS this evening, but this
activity is expected to dissipate before moving into central KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  67  88  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hutchinson      89  68  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Newton          88  67  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
ElDorado        86  66  86  68 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   87  67  87  68 /  20  20  20  10
Russell         90  68  90  66 /  20  20  20  20
Great Bend      89  67  89  66 /  20  20  20  20
Salina          91  68  90  68 /  10  10  20  30
McPherson       90  68  89  68 /  10  10  20  20
Coffeyville     86  66  86  67 /  40  30  30  10
Chanute         85  66  85  67 /  30  20  30  20
Iola            85  66  85  67 /  30  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    86  66  86  67 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM


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