Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201939
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Upper low is currently spinning over the Four Corners region with
showers and storms already developing over far western KS as the
upper dynamics continue to push east. At the surface, return flow
has setup across the Plains with very limited moisture in place,
especially given the time of year.

Upper low will continue to slide east tonight and by 12z Sat will
be moving into far western KS as strong upper diffluence
overspreads the forecast area. Current thinking is that a band of
showers will move into the western fringes of the forecast area
after 10 pm and should impact areas along I-135(including Wichita)
around or after midnight. Feel that the majority of our rainfall
will come with this initial wave as there is some mid level
theta-e advection aiding the development. After this initial band
of rain, confidence is high that we will maintain at least some
pockets of light rain and drizzle all day Sat with temps well
below normal as they don`t make it out of the 50s.

Upper low will be approaching the Ozark region by Sun morning
which will allow the rain to come to an end from west to east.
Mainly southeast KS will have the best chance to see additional
showers during the day Sun with the heavier rainfall staying south
and east of the forecast area. Should still see plenty of clouds
around Sun with areas west of I-135 possibly seeing some late day
sunshine. Still looking for widespread half inch rainfall amounts
with pockets of higher amounts, especially across southern KS.
Will be between weather systems Mon, as our next piece of energy
approaches from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

ECMWF and GFS remain in good agreement diving our next impulse out
of the northern Rockies and out into the Plains Tue into Tue
night. However, the ECMWF takes more of the energy further south
compared to the GFS resulting in the ECMWF pumping out more QPF.
At this point, confidence is high that another cold front will
push through Tue with at least some sct showers along it, but how
widespread rainfall will be is very low. We look to stay in a
progressive northwest flow pattern with yet another clipper system
to dive out of southern Canada and into the upper Mississippi
Valley for Thu. This will allow another cold front to move
through KS on Thu. This pattern will really limit any decent
moisture to make it this far north for severe storms and heavy
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High and mid-level clouds will continue stream into the region
ahead of the approaching upper level wave moving eastward across
the Rockies. Meanwhile southeast winds will gradually increase for
later this morning and rain showers spread into western Kansas.
The rain showers will push eastward into central/south central
Kansas by this evening along with cigs dropping into the MVFR
category.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Fire danger concerns are still expected to remain minimal through
the next several days.

Still expecting widespread rainfall tonight through Sat with most
locations picking up between a quarter and a half inch, with
pockets of heavier amounts over southern KS. Will remain cloudy
and cool for Sun which will keep RH values on the higher side.
Winds will remain light for Mon with another front expected to
move through Tue, which will knock temps back to below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  44  53  43 /  10  80  70  50
Hutchinson      63  44  51  41 /  10  90  70  50
Newton          63  43  52  42 /  10  80  70  50
ElDorado        63  44  53  43 /  10  80  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   65  45  53  43 /  10  80  80  60
Russell         62  42  50  38 /  30  90  60  40
Great Bend      61  42  50  38 /  40  90  60  40
Salina          64  44  52  41 /  10  70  70  50
McPherson       63  43  51  40 /  10  80  70  50
Coffeyville     65  45  56  46 /   0  80  80  70
Chanute         64  44  56  45 /   0  60  70  70
Iola            63  44  56  44 /   0  60  70  70
Parsons-KPPF    65  44  56  46 /   0  70  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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