000
FXUS63 KICT 121744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably warm today through mid to late next week. Near record
  high temperatures possible Sunday.

* Strong winds fueling very high to extreme grassfire danger across
  mainly central and south-central Kansas Saturday, then again
  Monday through Wednesday.

* Potential for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon through
  Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

TEMPERATURES...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a
rather warm period from today through about midway through next
week, with high probabilities for well above average temperatures.
The warmest days look to be Saturday through Monday, and also
Wednesday, when forecast high temperatures well into the 80s to near
90 degrees are probable. Record high temperatures may be threatened
on Sunday (Wichita 93 in 1936, Salina 93 in 2002, Russell 91 in
2002). By Thursday of next week, model consensus is in fairly good
agreement supporting a significant cool down, with some solutions
supporting daytime highs only in the 40s and overnight lows in the
20s-30s. Stay tuned for later forecasts, as details are refined the
next several days.

WIND...A fleet-footed shortwave will induce deepening low pressure
and associates stout/gusty south to southwest winds Saturday, with
gusts likely approaching 35 mph at times. Even stronger south-
southwest-west winds will continue Monday and Tuesday, as
unseasonably strong/deep low pressure moves through the Central
Plains, as progged by ensemble climatologies. Wind gusts exceeding
40-50 mph both days appears likely.

THUNDERSTORMS...As has been advertised with previous forecasts,
there remains potential for increasing thunderstorm chances Monday
afternoon through Monday night across the region, as a deep/strong
western CONUS upper trough and associated upper speed max approaches
from the west, overspreading a moist/unstable airmass in place
across the Central and Southern Plains. The overall synoptic setup
in conjunction with an anomalous CAPE/shear combination supports a
threat for severe thunderstorms. However, as is often the case with
strong systems like this, a slower and deeper trend is often
preferred, shifting thunderstorm initiation and associated higher-
end severe weather potential (i.e. discrete supercells) further west
over the High Plains. In this case, by the time activity reaches
central and eastern Kansas sometime Monday night, storm mode would
probably be rather messy, which would tend to reduce the higher-end
severe threat. All-in-all, uncertainty remains with the overall
evolution of late Monday`s severe potential. Stay tuned, as forecast
details continue to be refined through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Southeasterly wind become south by mid-afternoon near 10 kt.
Otherwise, LLWS conditions arrive from southwest to northeast
after 09Z as a 40-45 kt LLJ at 2.0 kft overspreads the area.
LLWS conditions subside shortly after sunrise as boundary layer
mixing ensues with gusts increasing 25-30 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Very high to extreme grassland fire danger is probable across
central and south-central Kansas Saturday, then again Monday through
Wednesday, due to well above average temperatures and strong/gusty
winds. Stay tuned, as forecast details are refined over the
coming days.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...ADK