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000
FXUS64 KJAN 171956
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
256 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Tonight and Wednesday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a nearly stacked low over eastern
Nebraska. This nearly stacked low will continue tracking northeast
across the Great Lakes region through Wednesday and drag a weakening
cold front into the northwest portions of our CWA this evening. This
cold front will become more east-west oriented as it sags and then
stalls near our Highway 82 corridor Wednesday. Our airmass will
continue to moisten ahead of this approaching weak cold front this
afternoon and evening. There will be low chances of rain over our
northwest most zones later this afternoon and evening until the cold
front actually moves into our CWA this evening. Rain chances will
increase across our northern zones tonight into Wednesday morning
before decreasing from the west Wednesday during the afternoon.
Although a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out across our north
Wednesday the chance for any severe storm appears too low to
mention. Temperatures will continue warmer than normal tonight and
Wednesday. /22/

Thursday night through next Wednesday...

By Thursday night into Friday, the CWA is progged to be wedged
between a low pressure developing over the Plains and a high
pressure building a ridge over the southeast region. This ridging
pattern will increase moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
while the low pressure swings a shortwave across the valley. A
boundary associated with this shortwave will increase instability
overnight as we continue into Friday, bringing showers and some
elevated thunderstorms across NE AR and northern MS on Thursday
night. A "Marginal" Risk (1/5) for damaging winds and quarter size
hail has been outlooked for Thursday night mostly north if I-20. The
greatest chance for a severe storm looks to be in the Delta Region.
Confidence in this system is fairly low, but some small hail or
gusty winds may be possible with any strong updrafts. By Friday, the
front is expected to push through the region, bringing lower than
normal temperatures for a brief period of time. Highs on Friday will
range from the lower 70s in the northwest and upper 80s in the
southeast, but will lower as the front moves south. By Saturday,
moisture will build back into the region, while another weak
shortwave looks to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley once
again. Scattered to numerous (35-85%) showers and some thunderstorms
are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Severe weather is not expected
over the weekend at this time.

By Monday, the shortwave is expected to eject to the northeast and
exit the CONUS near the coast of the Carolinas. NW flow will
increase into the region, bringing a cooler, drier airmass into the
CWA. Temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 60s to middle
70s, but will quickly increase again into Tuesday and Wednesday, as
temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s once again. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

An isolated TSRA sw of GTR will come in vcty of GTR through 19Z.
Otherwise, MVFR cigs were still being observed at the TAF sites
and wl take until after 19Z before improving to VFR. VFR
conditions will prevail this evening and continue until after 09Z
when MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop areawide. Occasional IFR
cigs are psbl 11Z-13Z. MVFR cigs wl improve to VFR by the end of
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  82  65  84 /  30  20  10  10
Meridian      65  84  65  86 /  20  20  10  20
Vicksburg     68  83  65  82 /  20  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   66  85  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       68  84  65  85 /  10  20   0  10
Greenville    68  82  65  73 /  10  40  50  20
Greenwood     67  83  67  76 /  20  40  50  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/22