Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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145 FXUS64 KJAN 072348 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 648 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Through Wednesday: As a weak shortwave moves across the region, scattered showers are ongoing mainly across eastern MS early this afternoon. Additional development is possible through early this evening, with isolated strong to severe storms not out of the question due to sufficient deep layer shear and instability. This activity is expected to weaken and/or move out of the area shortly after sunset with mainly dry conditions overnight and a return of widespread low stratus by Wednesday morning. Above average warmth will continue on Wednesday, but in spite of this resulting in abundant instability, lack of a coherent forcing mechanism and capping will limit precip through the daytime hours. Isolated showers can`t be ruled out mainly during the afternoon, but many locations will remain dry through the day with temps approaching the 90 degree mark. /DL/ Wednesday night through Monday: Come Wednesday evening a closed low over the Plains will be supporting a surface low over the mid Mississippi valley with a trailing cold front back across the ArkLaTex. Vigorous convection will be ongoing across northern Mississippi. As the evening progresses, the cold front will sag southward and there will be the potential for severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail across our northern zones. This severe potential will shift south and wain through the night as the cold front shifts south. By sunrise the cold front is expected to be stalled nearly along the Highway 82 corridor. There will be a low potential for strong to severe storms during the morning and early afternoon Thursday but a greater threat for more intense impacts will become possible by Thursday evening across the southern half our our CWA. By Thursday evening the stalled front is expected to be between Highway 82 and Interstate 20. Daytime heating of the warm moist airmass along and south of the boundary will combine with a southern stream shortwave moving out of the southern Plains to develop vigorous convection along the boundary. Atmospheric parameters will be favorable for damaging wind gusts to 70mph and hail to the size of golf balls. Model consensus moves this activity into our western most zones by late afternoon/early evening before sweeping east along and just south of the boundary. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible leading to minor runoff issues in the poor drainage areas. A deepening northern stream trough will help move the front and convection south of our forecast area Friday. By Friday evening the cold front is expected to be pushing off the Gulf coast. A subtle shortwave within the continued west to northwest flow aloft is expected to move across the region but will have little moisture to work with. No additional precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be cooler than normal and in the 50s for morning lows Saturday. With continued northwest flow aloft and a surface high shifting east across the region Saturday, cooler than normal and dry weather is expected to continue through Saturday night but temperatures will warm back above normal Sunday as weak shortwave ridging moves over our region and return flow increases. Moisture will continue to increase into Monday and rain chances will return in our west prior to sunrise ahead of the next low pressure system to affect our CWA Monday and Monday night. /22/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions to start the TAF period at all sites will give way to increasing chances for MVFR to IFR ceilings after 06Z. Low stratus will slowly mix and lift through the morning on Wednesday, with VFR conditions expected to prevail at all sites by 15Z-17Z. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 89 73 89 / 10 10 30 50 Meridian 71 92 71 91 / 20 20 20 60 Vicksburg 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 30 30 Hattiesburg 73 91 73 91 / 0 10 10 30 Natchez 72 90 72 91 / 0 0 10 30 Greenville 74 89 71 86 / 10 10 70 30 Greenwood 73 89 70 86 / 10 20 70 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/22/NF