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000
FXUS64 KJAN 180033
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
733 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Tonight and Thursday: Continued warmer than normal through Thursday.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a nearly stationary frontal
boundary across our northeast Louisiana Parishes and extending
northeast across our northeast zones. Local radars only showed
mostly light showers along the boundary as the more vigorous
convection earlier has shifted into Alabama. Additional shower
development will remain possible through tonight but the stalled
boundary will become diffuse by morning. Surface analysis also
showed a ridge along the Gulf coast states from the east. This ridge
will remain in place through Thursday and help a warm moist airmass
spread back across the whole CWA. This moist airmass will
destabilize with daytime heating Thursday and there will be the
development of isolated to scatted showers and thunderstorms but the
potential for any severe storms looks to hold off until Thursday
evening ahead of a cold front that will be approaching our western
zones. Rain chances also look to mainly occur north of Highway 84
which looks to remain dry through the forecast period. /22/

Thursday night through next Wednesday...

By Thursday night into Friday, the CWA is progged to be wedged
between a low pressure developing over the Plains and a high
pressure building a ridge over the southeast region. This ridging
pattern will increase moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
while the low pressure swings a shortwave across the valley. A
boundary associated with this shortwave will increase instability
overnight as we continue into Friday, bringing showers and some
elevated thunderstorms across NE AR and northern MS on Thursday
night. A "Marginal" Risk (1/5) for damaging winds and quarter size
hail has been outlooked for Thursday night mostly north if I-20. The
greatest chance for a severe storm looks to be in the Delta Region.
Confidence in this system is fairly low, but some small hail or
gusty winds may be possible with any strong updrafts. By Friday, the
front is expected to push through the region, bringing lower than
normal temperatures for a brief period of time. Highs on Friday will
range from the lower 70s in the northwest and upper 80s in the
southeast, but will lower as the front moves south. By Saturday,
moisture will build back into the region, while another weak
shortwave looks to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley once
again. Scattered to numerous (35-85%) showers and some thunderstorms
are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Severe weather is not expected
over the weekend at this time.

By Monday, the shortwave is expected to eject to the northeast and
exit the CONUS near the coast of the Carolinas. NW flow will
increase into the region, bringing a cooler, drier airmass into the
CWA. Temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 60s to middle
70s, but will quickly increase again into Tuesday and Wednesday, as
temperatures climb into the lower to middle 80s once again. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A very humid boundary layer and light southerly wind will support
early morning fog development over the PIB/HBG area. Otherwise,
expect low stratus to develop generally from south to north and
ceilings to lower to LIFR/IFR restrictions in the 09z to 15z time
frame on average. Ceilings should lift with VFR conditions
returning by afternoon in continued warm southerly flow. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  82  65  84 /  30  20  10  10
Meridian      65  84  65  86 /  20  20  10  20
Vicksburg     68  83  65  82 /  20  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   66  85  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       68  84  65  85 /  10  20   0  10
Greenville    68  82  65  73 /  10  40  50  20
Greenwood     67  83  67  76 /  20  40  50  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/EC