Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 291117
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
717 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Overnight surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars)
blanketing the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, with this
feature building into the Deep South in the wake of Thursday`s
cold frontal passage. Aloft...a potent, negatively tilted trough
positioned along the Mid-Atlantic coast was lifting northward,
creating a dry northwesterly flow across our region. Skies have
cleared out overnight throughout our region, with cool air
advection driving temperatures down to around 50 degrees across
inland portions of southeast GA as of 07Z, ranging to around 60
along the northeast FL coast. A wider range of dewpoints exist
across our area, with low and mid 30s across inland portions of
southeast GA, while values remain in the low and mid 50s along the
northeast FL coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Our local pressure gradient will remain tight this morning as low
pressure strengthens off the New England coast and high pressure
continues to build towards our region. This weather pattern will
yield breezy northerly winds this morning, followed by diminishing
onshore winds this afternoon as high pressure begins to settle
over our area, allowing our local pressure gradient to loosen.
Plenty of sunshine, a dry air mass, and weakening cool air
advection this afternoon will allow highs to climb into the 70s at
inland locations, while an onshore breeze keeps coastal highs in
the mid to upper 60s.

Flow aloft will become zonal tonight, allowing for thin cirrus to
drift across our region from the west after midnight. Otherwise,
high pressure will settle directly over our area, allowing for
radiational cooling. We nudged low temperatures a few degrees
below model blends tonight to account for the dry air mass and
decoupling winds shortly after sunset, which will result in lows
falling to the 40s region-wide. These values will be about 5-10
degrees below late March climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

The influence of high pressure will remain in place through the
weekend, resulting in dry weather and mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies through the period. Temperatures will warm through
the weekend with daily high temps rising into the upper 70s and
lower 80s before the end of the weekend. Overnight low
temperatures will similarly warm up into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

High pressure will move off to the east by Tuesday, with
increased chances for showers and storms beginning in the period
between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning as a cold front
presses in from out of the west. At current, the front is expected
to push across the forecast area by Wednesday night with high
pressure conditions returning over the region on Thursday. Above
average temperatures are anticipated for the beginning of next
week with temps dipping to be closer to near and below the
seasonal average by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the entire 12Z TAF period.
Northerly winds near 10 knots along the coast and 6-8 knots inland
will rise to 8-10 knots inland and breezy along the coast 12-14
knots by 14Z with gusts 16-20 knots as high pressure builds into
the region today from the west. Winds will become northeasterly
this afternoon for most sites except SGJ and slowly relax to
5-8 knots under persistent clear skies. After 00Z, winds will
become very light along the coast with a southerly component at
SSI and more easterly at SGJ while becoming calm inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

High pressure building into the southeastern states this morning
will become centered directly over our local waters this evening
and will then shift offshore on Saturday. Gusty north-
northeasterly winds this morning will shift to east-northeasterly
with diminishing speeds this afternoon. Small Craft should
Exercise Caution throughout our local waters this morning due to
speeds of 15-20 knots. Small Craft should Exercise Caution through
tonight if venturing beyond 20 nautical miles offshore, where seas
of 4-6 feet will prevail.

Seas will continue to gradually subside below Caution levels
offshore on Saturday as winds shift to a prevailing southerly
direction. Seas of 2-4 feet are expected both near shore and
offshore from Saturday night through Tuesday. South-southwesterly
winds will prevail through Tuesday, with speeds then increasing on
Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching strong cold
front. Caution level speeds of 15-20 knots are forecast offshore
on Tuesday night. Showers will be possible after midnight on
Tuesday night.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds today will create a moderate
rip current risk at all area beaches. A long period northeasterly
ocean swell will arrive at area beaches on Saturday and will
persist through Monday, keeping a moderate rip current risk in
place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Minor flooding will continue during the next several days along
upper portions of the Altamaha River near the Baxley gauge as well
as along lower portions of the Satilla River near the Atkinson
gauge. Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River
near the Three Rivers Estates gauge may rise above flood stage
during the early to mid portions of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  41  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  66  47  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  71  43  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  68  47  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  44  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  77  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


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