291
FXUS62 KKEY 271844
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
244 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
It has been a windy day across the Florida Keys with these
conditions continuing. KBYX radar has also been detecting isolated
fast-moving showers moving from east to west at 20 to 25 knots
through the Florida Keys in the easterly flow. Occasionally, a
few of these showers have crossed the Island Chain bringing a few
hundreths of an inch to a few island communities as estimated from
MRMS (Multi- Radar/Multi- Sensor data). Temperatures along the
Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with the Big Pine Key
RAWS coming in at 88 degrees so far this afternoon. Dew points are
near 70 degrees.

Sprawling surface high pressure currently centered just southeast
of New England continues to dive southward moving further into
the Atlantic this afternoon. As a result, marine platforms
throughout the Keys are observing east winds near 20 knots with
occasional gusts as high as 30 knots with Island Chain communities
observing near 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph occasionally.

.FORECAST...
Strong high pressure off the New England coast is expected to
continue moving southward through the remainder of the weekend
and into early next week before stalling just north of the Bahamas.
As it does so, it is expected to slowly weaken. Therefore, since
this will be the main driver for our weather the next several
days, expect the windy conditions to continue with the peak of the
current wind surge occurring this evening through around midnight
before the breezes begin to only slowly slacken. Windy conditions
are expected to continue for Island Chain communities through
Sunday evening/night before becoming breezy heading into Monday
morning. Breezes will continue to further slacken early next week
as the high continues to weaken. Slight chances of showers was
maintained for tonight with Sunday being increased to 20%. For
Sunday night, 20% was maintained. Model guidance is showing an
increase in the 850 mb moisture for Sunday and Sunday night
resulting in potentially a better chance for slightly more
widespread showers during this time compared to today. Early next
week, drier air begins to filter back in resulting in 10% being
maintained during this time frame.

Heading into mid to late week, the aforementioned high
pressure is expected to retreat eastward further into the Atlantic.
This will result in mainly easterly flow continuing with lower
level moisture becoming slightly more scarce than over this
weekend and early next week. As a result, slight chance (10%) was
maintained through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys
coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered just
southeast of the New England coast will continue diving southward
further into the western North Atlantic through the remainder of
the weekend. Easterly breezes will freshen further this evening,
with strong breezes expected through at least Sunday. As the high
weakens somewhat south of Bermuda early next week, breezes will
slacken, although occasionally fresh breezes will continue through
the first half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Despite drive-by, fast-moving light showers through the late
afternoon hours, VFR conditions will prevail at the island
terminals. Near-surface winds will remain sustained from the east
at 15 to 20 knots, with occasional gusts to near 25 knots,
especially in the vicinity of the passing showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, in 2003, a severe
thunderstorm produced a 53 mph gust and 1/2" to 1&3/4" hail over
the entire island of Key West for about 10 minutes. This was the
largest hail ever recorded in Key West, and tied the largest ever
in Monroe County. And in 1980, hail smaller than 3/4" fell in Key
West and an F2 tornado hit Cudjoe Key and/or Ramrod Key, resulting
In 10 injuries and $250k in damage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  75  83  75  83 /  10  20  20  10
Marathon  75  83  75  84 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....DR

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