Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
650 FXUS62 KKEY 010749 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 349 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 After a pretty active early overnight period, things have turned eerily quiet across the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery is detecting partly cloudy skies across the island chain. Temperatures are generally in the mid 70s, rebounding even in areas that received measurable rainfall earlier this evening. Quite a tough forecast for the first couple of periods for the Keys. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a deep, moist layer up to around the 700 mb isobaric surface. CIMSS satellite- derived total precipitable water product indicates even higher moisture upstream of the Florida Keys in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Mesoanalysis, however, suggests an area of upper- level divergence and forcing for ascent that was centered over the Keys this evening has since progressed southeastward. With that said, there are likely several ghost boundaries hovering south of the island chain from earlier convection, which certainly have the chance to locally force ascent and reignite activity this morning. If that weren`t enough to consider, given winds backing to a northeast to east direction by this afternoon, cumulus cloud line formation certainly cannot be ruled out. Given all of these factors, did elect to nudge measurable rain chances slightly upward to low- end chance levels, a decent bit above available statistical MOS guidance. Given earlier observed cloud pulses along with a few lightning strikes, also introduced slight thunder chances for the first two periods, until drier air looks to push back across the Keys. Will pass along to the morning crew to reevaluate this short-term forecast once the 12z morning sounding data from KEY comes in. Overall, a stagnant pattern emerges for late in the week through early next week. High pressure centered roughly southwest of Bermuda will undulate in terms of strength and location through the middle of next week. This will result in a generally easterly breezes and rainfall largely dictated by any occasional localized moisture surges. Global ensemble guidance does suggest the mid- level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should regain its hold over the Florida Keys by sometime early to the middle of next week. After several days of near normal temperatures of highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s, temperatures may slowly approach above normal levels for the day 7 forecast and beyond. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered southwest of Bermuda will continue to meander today. This high will merge with a secondary high diving southward from the North Atlantic, resulting in an extended period of generally moderate easterly breezes for late in the week and into the weekend. Breezes for this period will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, then lull during the daytime. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Shower activity has decreased from yesterday evening. However, guidance suggests another round developing nearby the Lower Keys around sunrise. As breezes back to the northeast to east today, cloudlines will also be possible with bouts of MVFR VIS and CIG and some lightning strikes possible. Uncertainty in exact location and timing of convection remains high today, so no mention of VCSH is in either TAF at this time. Near surface winds will be out of the east at around 10 knots, becoming east to northeast by this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1988, Key West observed a record cold high temperature of 74F, as well as a daily record rainfall of 2.46". April temperature records for Key West date back to 1873, and rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 75 85 76 / 30 20 20 10 Marathon 84 75 85 75 / 30 30 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest