National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLBF 130908
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
408 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the 80s continue likely today through
  Monday.

- Strong north winds, gusting 50 mph or stronger are likely
  Tuesday.

- Severe weather is possible across wrn and ncntl Nebraska
  Monday night. The main concern is damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The temperature forecast today and Sunday leans toward the RAP, HRRR
and NBM 50th solutions. A backdoor cold front will drop through
wrn/ncntl Nebraska tonight lowering highs a few degrees Sunday.
According to the RAP soundings, mixing today will be dry adiabatic
to near 500 mb. Above that level, the models show high RH which
should cause cloudiness at times. The forecast dares the very dry
air below 500 mb will support the heating necessary for the lofty
temperature forecast today. The backdoor cold front Sunday will cool
temperatures aloft a few degrees and mixing heights will be 700 mb
north and up near 550 mb south.

An upper level disturbance circulating across Colo this morning will
move east through wrn/ncntl Nebraska this afternoon. The FV3 and
HRRR models suggest very high based showers, sprinkles or fall
streaks. An isolated POP is in place this afternoon and this
evening. The limiter for SHRA vs TSRA appears to be moisture. Mixing
heights today rise to around 500 mb and cloud bases will be around
15kft with just 10kft of moisture available above that. It`s worth
noting the models show gusty winds to 35-50 mph with the showers or
sprinkles.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The models show fairly strong southeast winds Monday, around 25
mph with increasing moisture 850-700mb transport. A strong cap
will be in place around 800 mb and this should inhibit storm
development. The best forcing will remain farther west across
the Colo Plains, just south of a deepening h700mb low predicted
to track through srn WY Monday and then east through srn/ern
Nebraska Tuesday. The best QPF for Monday will be across ern WY,
along the track of the h700mb low.

SPC outlooked much of wrn/ncntl Nebraska for several weather Monday
night; mainly for wind damage from fast moving severe storms. The
approaching h700mb low will weaken the cap with the best chance for
severe storms east of highway 83. Given the spartan QPF the models
show Monday night, confidence in the outlook is somewhat low.

The models are in good agreement showing a band of wrap-around rain
across Nebraska Tuesday. The rain will form on the west side of the
h700mb low and could be as far west as highway 61 in wrn Nebraska as
show by the 06z NAM or as far east of highway 281 in ncntl Nebraska
according to the ECM and GFS. WPC and the NBM take the middle road
and place best QPF along and east of highway 83.

The NBM wind forecast Tuesday looks pretty solid showing sustained
north winds around 30 mph gusting to 50 mph. It is worth noting
these strong winds will develop mostly across wrn Nebraska, outside
or to the west of the departing rain shield across ncntl Nebraska.
This wind forecast is close to the GEF and ENS solutions. The
deterministic GFS and ECM are about 5 mph stronger for sustained
speeds around 35 mph and gusts to around 55 mph, according to the
models. Later forecasts might include a High Wind Watch for Tuesday
across parts of wrn/ncntl Nebraska.

There is little change in the forecast beyond Tuesday. Cold air
aloft will support rain or snow showers and the storm affecting
Nebraska Tuesday will circulate across the Upper Midwest and the
Great Lakes for several days. The models are in good agreement
drawing a large area of Canadian high pressure south into the Great
Plains which will rest across Nebraska Wednesday through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night
across western and north central Nebraka. Southerly LLWS will
persist through sunrise, before quickly ending for all area
terminals. Winds remain southerly through this morning, at
around 5 to 15 kts. Winds then shift from southerly to northerly
this afternoon, with speeds remaining near 10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown