Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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289 FXUS64 KLIX 120844 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 344 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper ridging is beginning to set up over the eastern gulf and western Atlantic this morning. The upper trough out west is now starting to become oriented N-S as the upper ridge builds into the NW CONUS. This will eventually help to eject several strong disturbances eastward. The upper trough becomes progressive as this short wave exits the base of its trough Monday. This will help this system maintain its dynamics at all levels. The instability is not in place yet but will be as the synoptic warm front pulls through the area later today providing deep moisture and a strong ThetaE gradient that should stall from Mobile to the NW. This will help set the stage for late in the day Monday for training heavy rainfall bouts. Most of this activity occurs late Monday and overnight but there will still be sh/ts moving through the area today through Monday. The activity that moves through today through Monday will just prime the area for Monday. Some totals that are coming in range from 4 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts and WPC has also indicated a moderate risk of flooding rainfall over the eastern portion of the area. This looks valid but could move northward or at least be stretched northward depending on how this situation is resolved over the next 24 hours. We have contemplated a Flash Flood Watch to start either by noon or late in the day Monday. Since this is late in the day on Monday, we will discuss further on placement and timing as conditions become more clear before setting the Watch in play. The other contribution from this system will be the possibility of severe storms, and this looks credible as well so there is not disagreement with the slight risk of severe from SPC either. But the messy conditions today through Monday before the main system moves in will also need to be watched as one or two storms could become rogue along and after the warm front moves through today. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 This first upper trough actually passes the area by Tuesday and a cold front will move to the coast before stalling. This front also begins to back up Wed and this whole process looks to start over again as another upper trough out west digs southward causing H3 split flow across this boundary. This could present another heavy rain event toward the end of this week as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR through much of today but cigs will slowly fall into MVFR levels before midnight and into IFR around sunrise Monday. There will be some SHRA and TSRA around today and some terminals may get some of this activity. For today, the greatest chances will be found around MCB but BTR could also see this occur. The precip will be found at more locations tonight but should be mainly -SHRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Winds will begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt today as an warm front moves north. Although the general wind speeds will remain 15-20kt, Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. The first system will move out by Tuesday and a cold front should stall along the coast or just offshore causing winds to temporarily develop from the north, but this boundary should move north by Wed causing southerly winds to re-establish. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters again toward the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 78 65 82 65 / 40 80 90 70 BTR 84 72 88 70 / 40 60 70 60 ASD 84 71 85 70 / 20 50 90 80 MSY 84 75 86 73 / 20 50 80 80 GPT 83 72 83 70 / 20 60 90 80 PQL 84 70 84 70 / 20 50 90 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE