236
FXUS65 KLKN 212034
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
134 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rather quiet weather continues Monday though virga and
light sprinkles are possible along the US Highway 50 corridor.
Winds will be breezy with highs in the 70s. Active period begins
Tuesday and persists through the weekend as an active pattern
impacts the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Skies are sunny this
afternoon with high clouds moving across the area. Winds are
breezy with gusts to 30 mph. Look for the dry conditions to
continue into the overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

For Monday and Monday night, a west to east flow will remain over
northern and central Nevada. Some mid-level moisture, combined
with limited instability and convergence, will move across the US
Highway 50 corridor during the afternoon hours. Some very light
showers or virga is possible with a stray lightning strike. Have
put those in the grids for the afternoon. Otherwise, look for
partly to mostly sunny skies with spring-like highs in the 70s.
Winds will be breezy during afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Look
for quiet conditions during the overnight with lows in the 30s and
40s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday

Active weather looks to be on the horizon as two offshore lows
seem stacked longitudinally. One low by Tuesday will be occupying
the waters off of Juneau, AK, while the other will be well out to
sea, off the coast of California. With exiting ridging departing
toward the central US, an axis of dilatation forms with convergent
flow from both lows over the state Tuesday afternoon. More
commonly known as a convergence zone, this area of convergence
will generate some instability, enough to kick off a some showers
with isolated thunder being possible across Lander, Eureka, and
portions of Elko county. Highs are expected in the range from the
low to mid 70s for most of the area. Winds may be breezy across
central Nevada, particularly White Pine and Northern Nye, where
southwest winds of 15-20 mph could gust up to 25-30 mph during
the afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday have similar weather as the above mentioned
features progress eastward and set-up morning instability, and
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs Wednesday will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for most, with cooler conditions in the
mid to upper 60s for Thursday. Model discrepancies due to feature
placement make it challenging to time out frontal progressions of
theses storms. However, larger scale troughing pattern across the
western U.S. will continue for late next week. Temperatures
continue to cool down with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, with
breezy condtions each afternoon. Shower activity looks to
continue through Saturday, with showers tapering off Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24
hours, with dry condtions for most locations. KELY may get into
some VCTS towards the 20-00Z tomorrow afternoon. Winds
W10G20-25kt this afternoon will taper off into the evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions are expected thru Monday, however temperatures also
continue to trend warmer which will help to accelerate the
melting of mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, and will likely
rise further in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and expected to continue to slowly recede over the coming
days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast
to reach minor flood stage in the Wednesday timeframe.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river
is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over the next several
days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the next
several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action stage.
Additional rises are forecast with the river reaching near flood
stage in the Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/91/91