009
FXUS66 KLOX 081711
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1011 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...08/1004 AM.

Gusty northeast winds will continue across portions of Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties this morning and some warming is
expected today. Otherwise, a quiet weather pattern is expected
through early next week, with dry conditions. Night through
morning low clouds should become more extensive late in the
weekend and early next week. Mostly minor day to day changes in
temperatures are expected through Sunday, with some cooling
possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...08/1011 AM.

***UPDATE***

Offshore gradients ended up being somewhat weaker than expected
and a 2000` marine layer along with an eddy circulation helped
spread low clouds into some of the LA coast and valley areas this
morning. Despite this, temperatures should still warm up slightly
over yesterday. Otherwise, a quiet weather pattern today and
through most of the week.

***From Previous Discussion***

The high resolution models have really keyed in on a good eddy
circulation tonight, with rather strong SE flow spreading thru the
Santa Barbara Channel tonight. By Thu morning, this will evolve
into a full blown southerly surge as southerly winds at the
surface round Pt. Conception and spread northward into and off the
Central Coast. Expect more widespread low clouds/fog in coastal
areas and in the the lower valleys tonight/Thu morning. The
question is whether or not the eddy circulation tonight shifts
westward too much, and actually pulls clouds off the coast of L.A.
County. But in general, clouds should be more widespread
tonight/Thu morning, with clearing expected in most areas by late
Thu morning. There will be a fair amount of cooling at 950 mb due
to the southeasterly flow, so expect several degrees of cooling in
most areas west of the mountains. The exception may be across the
Santa Ynez Valley and southern portions of the Central Coast,
where southerly flow will downslope, producing some warming.

The upper low will drift southwestward into southern Nevada Thu
night/Fri, but it will weaken, and heights will actually rise
across the area. Expect night thru morning low clouds in coastal
and some valley areas Thu night/Fri morning. Max temps should be
up a few degrees in most areas Fri, at least away from the coast.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/431 AM.

The operational runs of both the GFS and the EC show the upper low
reversing course and shifting eastward Fri night and Sat, with an
amplifying ridge moving into the West Coast. At the surface, low
level N-S gradients will increase across SLO and SBA Counties,
possibly resulting in some gusty winds across southern SBA County
during the evening hours Fri and Sat. Low clouds may be a bit less
widespread Fri night/Sat due to the northerly flow. Also, the
marine layer may become shallow enough for clouds to be confined
to coastal areas. Max temps may edge upward slightly Sat. The
upper ridge will flatten Sun, but heights will change little, so
do not expect major changes, with night thru morning low clouds
in coastal areas and locally in the valley Sat night/Sun. Max
temps may come down a tad Sun as onshore flow increases slightly.

A weak upper low will move across the eastern Pacific Mon and over
the region Tue. With lowering heights and increasing onshore flow,
expect some cooling Mon and Tue, with more extensive night thru
morning low clouds and fog extending farther inland.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1135Z.

At 1030Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 1500 feet.
The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of
15 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 12Z TAF package. MVFR CIGs
will impact KSMO/KLAX/KLGB thru 17Z with CAVU conditions
elsewhere. For tonight, moderate confidence in return of MVFR CIGs
for coastal/valley sites south of Point Conception, but low
confidence in timing of CIG return (could be +/- 4 hours of
current forecast). Offshore flow this morning may produce some
light turbulence/LLWS across the mountains and foothills through
20Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 50% chance of
MVFR CIGs 12Z-16Z. For tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR
CIGs, but low confidence in timing (could be +/- 4 hours of
current 09Z forecast). No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
IFR CIGs could be as late as 17Z. For tonight, moderate
confidence in return of MVFR CIGs, but low confidence in timing
(could be +/- 4 hours of current 11Z forecast).

&&

.MARINE...08/955 AM.

There is a 60-90 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions through at least this evening for the waters northwest
through southwest of the Channel Islands and along the Central
Coast. SCA conditions may linger longer into tonight across the
outer waters. Then, winds and seas will drop below SCA levels
through at least Saturday. There is a moderate chance of SCA level
winds developing late Saturday through Sunday, increasing to a
high chance of Sunday afternoon and night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for
      zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/DB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox