540
FXUS61 KLWX 070123
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
923 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue throughout this week with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may contain
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. A strong cold front
looks to cross the region Thursday into Friday bringing an increased
threat for flooding and severe weather. Decreasing rain chances and
cooler conditions are expected as high pressure returns this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Shortwave trough is located over the area this evening with
showers and a few thunderstorms pivoting eastward across the
area. Activity has been stratifying and evaporating with
north/east extent due to relatively drier air and lower
instability. The threat for heavy rain/flooding appears to be
diminishing. The bulk of this activity will push to the east in
the next few hours, but some showers could linger into the
night with a lingering boundary across the area and some
elevated instability. Will also have to monitor current
convection in western West Virginia, as any remnant activity
could reach the area during the second half of the night.

Areas of fog are possible again during the second half of the
night. Some guidance indicates dense fog, but this may be
contingent on breaks in the clouds. Lows overnight tonight
should generally be in the low-mid 60s, with upper 50s in the
mountains. Dewpoint values will remain in the 60s leading to a
muggy feel.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather
conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each
afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather
threat remains low. Tuesday will feature brief mid-level ridging
which should suppress convection briefly before an approaching
trough reignites the threat Wednesday into Thursday.

Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized Tuesday
given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region. More
of a focus turns toward Tuesday night as a complex of storms will
eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it`s
decaying phase as it works eastward heading into Wednesday morning
and could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro
threat pan out Wednesday afternoon.

On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater
given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to
southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and
compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The
combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of
the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe
threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. EVen
with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible
with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge. The primary threat for
storms over the next two days will be damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible.

Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs
reaching into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as a wave of
low pressure develops over the area Thursday, then quickly pushes
northeast Thursday night. This is followed by a passing cold front
Friday. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to cross
the area, especially Thursday afternoon/evening.

Starting Thursday morning, widespread showers and storms are likely
to be ongoing around sunrise over the western half of the area as a
complex of storms from WV moves eastward. This early day convection
wanes and mostly dissipates by late morning. The big uncertainty for
Thursday will be how much instability can develop in the afternoon,
before the next round of storms develops. The ingredients are there
for severe storms to develop if we get instability that can combine
with forcing for ascent from the passing upper trough to the north
and bulk shear of 40-50 knots. SPC has placed areas east of the Blue
Ridge on a Day 4 Slight Risk for severe storms. Lingering
showers/storms Thursday evening dissipate after midnight, with
mostly dry and slightly muggy conditions overnight.

A cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon, bringing another
round of scattered showers and storms. Surface high pressure builds
into the area Friday night into Saturday, possibly bringing the
first day of mostly dry conditions areawide. Another reinforcing
upper trough moves through Saturday night into Sunday, maybe
bringing some scattered showers to the Alleghenies into northern MD.

Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday drop to
slightly below normal values Friday into the weekend, with upper 60s
to lower 70s. Overnight lows follow the same pattern, dropping to
the 40s to low 50s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Earlier convective activity has been stratifying, so
thunderstorm mentions have been removed from the TAFs. Generally
light showers are expected through midnight or so. Additional
scattered showers are possible overnight due to a weak front
lingering across the area, but any impacts are tough to pinpoint
at this time.

MVFR ceilings have also been more persistent than most guidance
indicated, although there may be a brief period of lifting late
this evening before conditions deteriorate overnight. IFR
ceilings and fog both appear possible again late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Some of the fog could be dense (1/4SM). Gradual
improvement back to VFR conditions is expected again on
Tuesday, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible once again. Have made a mention of VCTS once again.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually decreases on
Wednesday with slightly drier air underneath westerly
downsloping flow. The threat is non zero with the highest
confidence for a thunderstorm mainly at terminals along and
south of I-66/US-50.

Light and variable winds are expected through Tuesday. Winds
will turn to the west Wednesday and may gusts 15-20 knots.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with
some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at
all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are
likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.

Southwest winds Thursday afternoon could gust to 15-20 knots at
times. A cold front sweeps through Friday, causing winds to become
northwest in the morning. Gusty winds of 20-25 knots possible Friday
afternoon

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds are expected over the waters through
Tuesday. No marine hazards are expected outside of diurnally
driven scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening with
a better focus Tuesday night. Winds will turn westerly on
Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern
portions of the Bay.

SCA conditions are possible over most of the local waters Thursday
and Friday due to southerly channeling. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible Thursday, with Special Marine Warnings
likely needed as storms move through in the afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light winds over the next day or so will keep tide levels lower,
with most locations peaking in Action Stage during high tide. The
only issues could be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits
Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday
morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase
Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal
flooding as tide levels rise again.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...ADS/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/KRR/EST
MARINE...ADS/KJP/KRR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX