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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231729
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Temperatures remain cool across the state this morning but are
15-20 degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday. Sfc ridging
has begun to shift east of the area this morning and will
continue to make progress throughout the day. S-SW winds will
increase ahead of an approaching system.

Clouds will increase and a cold front will approach from the NW
later today. As the front moves into the state, limited moisture
and instability will help to prevent widespread precip
development and much thunder. But, isolated to scattered showers
and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across
northern parts of the state from this afternoon through tonight.

As the front sinks south, rain chances will also shift southward
toward central parts of the state. Nrly winds will be noted across
the northern half of the state behind the front, but there won`t
be much cold air in place. Rain chances remain limited with little
in the way of widespread QPF in the forecast.

The front will linger across the middle of the state through the
end of the period. As additional pieces of shortwave energy
traverse the mid-level NW flow, some additional showers and
thunderstorms will likely move across the area. Highs on
Wednesday are expected to be a few degrees cooler across much of
the state compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Model solutions this mrng cont to show that an unsettled wx pattern
is in store for the Natural State thru the period. The upper flow
pattern wl transition to the SW later in the week as a large scale
upper trof bcms established ovr the western states.

This wl allow a series of upper lvl impulses to traverse the Mid-
South, resulting in several rounds of convection. There wl be the
potential for some strong or severe storms, as well as a threat for
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

A quasi-stationary fntl bndry is progged to be aligned acrs SW AR
early on Thu. The bndry wl eventually lift northward of the state by
early Fri, in response to a deepening low pres system moving newd
acrs the central Plains. Good chcs for showers/few storms wl cont
mainly along and north of the fnt Thu and Thu ngt. By Fri, the
entire area wl be back in an unseasonably warm and humid airmass.

With a swly steering flow in place heading into the weekend, a
series of SWT`s wl move acrs the region and produce additional
rounds of convection. Model trends cont to focus on the nw half of
the state for the potential of any strong/severe storms, along with
the axis of highest QPF values. Cumulative amounts wl be monitored
for the potential of flash flooding concerns.

It does appear that the upper trof and assocd CDFNT to our west wl
begin to make some eastward progress late in the weekend and early
next week. Wl cont to monitor later model data and see of these
trends rmn consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with winds
out of the south/southwest. Winds could be gusty at times. A weak
front will approach northern portions of the state tonight into
early tomorrow morning. This will cause winds to go northerly
across much of the state by tomorrow morning. Some light rain
chances will be possible but widespread precip is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  57  73  55 /  10  30  20  50
Camden AR         76  59  76  60 /   0  10  30  20
Harrison AR       77  49  71  53 /  40  30  20  70
Hot Springs AR    76  59  74  59 /   0  20  40  40
Little Rock   AR  77  62  75  59 /   0  20  30  40
Monticello AR     76  59  76  61 /   0  10  30  20
Mount Ida AR      76  58  74  59 /   0  20  50  50
Mountain Home AR  77  50  73  52 /  30  30  10  60
Newport AR        76  59  75  56 /   0  20  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     76  59  75  60 /   0  10  30  30
Russellville AR   78  57  74  56 /  10  30  30  50
Searcy AR         76  57  73  55 /   0  20  20  50
Stuttgart AR      75  60  75  59 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...73