321
FXUS64 KMAF 051058
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Per latest water vapor imagery early this morning, the shortwave
partially responsible for the active weather across the region
yesterday afternoon and evening has dampened quite a bit, with
weak southwesterly to quasi-zonal flow developing in its wake.
This flow will continue into early next week as a trough taking
shape over the Pacific Northwest progresses eastward, deepening
and developing a negative tilt as it swings from the Great Basin
across the Rockies on Monday. Today, post-frontal conditions will
yield a day of below normal temperatures with highs topping out in
the 70s and 80s for most, with 90s confined to the Rio Grande and
Presidio Valleys. Temperatures will also be kept in check by
widespread cloud cover that will stick around well into the
afternoon for eastern portions of the area, though locations west
of the Pecos will likely see sun breaking through by lunch time.
Most of the region will stay dry today, with shower and
thunderstorm chances focused generally south of I-10 in closer
proximity to the diffuse frontal boundary. While a few storms in
Terrell County may become strong to severe this afternoon, it is a
low risk, with the bulk of severe weather expected to be focused
to the southeast from the Hill Country into South Texas. A few
showers and storms will also be possible this afternoon across the
higher terrain of the Davis and Glass Mountains due to ample
moisture and orographic effects, though these storms will be
short-lived and remain sub-severe. Any storms that develop are
progged to wind down quickly after sunset.

A quiescent night is ahead tonight under the influence of
continued southeasterly return flow, which will keep moisture
elevated and lows on the mild side in the lower to middle 60s for
most, and in the middle to upper 50s across the higher terrain. As
the aforementioned trough passes to the north of the region on
Monday, its attendant jet will yield an uptick in winds across the
northern tier of the forecast area, and particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains. High winds may be
possible in the Guadalupe Mountains for a few hours Monday
afternoon, but at this time it looks to be borderline and brief,
thus will hold off on any wind headlines. That said, the shift to
downsloping westerly flow at the surface beneath zonal flow aloft
will yield a quick rebound to above normal temperatures, with
highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, and the
return of triple digits along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend.
These above normal temperatures and dry, breezy conditions Monday
will also yield an uptick in fire weather concerns across western
areas. More on this can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion
below.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Under quasi-zonal flow and subtle mid-level ridging, a warming
trend is likely early next week. Gusty, downsloping westerly winds
are possible in the Guadalupe into the Davis Mountains and
surrounding foothills Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. As a
conglomeration of short waves congeal into a broad trough
extending from the Great Lakes to the central Rockies, a surface
cold front will be pushed south through the area on Thursday. This
cold front drops temperatures over northern parts of the area
Thursday, with all of the area seeing cooler temperatures,
increased moisture and clouds, and northeasterly flow by Friday
and into Saturday, before winds veer to southeasterly. Forecast
upper air pattern for next weekend is still uncertain. Currently,
models show an upper low forecast to develop over the Great Salt
Lake, with downstream upper air flow transitioning back to
southwesterly. As upper flow becomes more southwesterly, lee
troughing develops, with southeasterly winds east of lee troughing
allowing moisture to advect back into the area. However,
magnitude of moisture return and consistency between runs with
respect to placement and track of any disturbances are not yet
apparent. Therefore, any rainfall amounts and chances this far out
remain uncertain.

Highs and lows will be above normal for early May Monday night
through Wednesday night, with highs in the 80s and 90s, triple
digit readings near the Rio Grande, and lows in the 60s, 50s in
northern parts of the Permian Basin, SE NM plains, and higher
elevations across West Texas. 90s extend farthest north and up
along the Pecos River Tuesday, with slightly cooler conditions in
the upper 80s for northernmost areas Wednesday, however triple
digit readings expand in coverage near the Rio Grande on
Wednesday. Highs north of the cold front Thursday will be cooler
than Wednesday and in the 70s and 80s, with 90s and above
elsewhere aside from 80s in higher elevations. Lows in the 50s
Thursday night will be widespread farther south than the previous
nights with CAA behind the cold front, and highs Friday in the 70s
and 80s apart from 90s near the Rio Grande. Friday night will be
even cooler than Thursday night as lows fall into the 50s as far
south as the Rio Grande valleys and into the 40s in higher
elevations and northernmost areas. Highs and lows Saturday and
Saturday night will be similar to Friday and Friday night,
respectively. Highs Sunday will be warmer than Friday and
Saturday, mainly in the 80s and 90s. Lows Sunday night fall into
the 50s and 60s under mild southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A mixed bag of MVFR and IFR ceilings are impacting terminals at
issuance, with LIFR conditions in low clouds/fog at FST.
Conditions will be slow to improve to VFR, with CNM/PEQ the first
to see VFR conditions return around 16Z-18Z, and continued gradual
improvement from west to east through late afternoon. After a
brief reprieve, low ceilings look to return to MAF after 06/06Z,
though other terminals should remain VFR. Northeasterly winds this
morning will veer to the southeast this afternoon, becoming
elevated/gusty between 22Z-00Z, persisting thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Most rain that has fallen since Friday has been east of the Pecos
River, with critically dry fuels and ERCs at or above the 70th
percentile across the upper Trans Pecos, Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains, Davis Mountain Foothills, and Culberson County in West
Texas, and Lea, Eddy, and Chaves Counties into the Sacramento
Foothills in SE NM. RFTIs could briefly exceed 3 across Chaves
County and the Sacramento Foothills late this afternoon into the
evening, but duration is not expected to be sufficient to warrant
a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement. As the dryline that has setup
over the central Permian Basin this week is pushed well east of
the area Monday as quasi-zonal flow and ridging aloft develops,
sunnier skies, increasing westerly winds sustained above 20 mph,
widespread min RH below critical 15% level and as low as 6%, highs
4 to 6 degrees warmer than average and in the upper 80s to lower
90s will all combine with critically dry fuels to pose critical
fire weather conditions over western portions of the area Monday
afternoon through evening. Consequently, a Fire Weather Watch is
in effect from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for the
upper Trans Pecos, Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, Davis Mountains
Foothills, Culberson County, SE NM plains, and the Sacramento
Foothills.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons over western portions of the area as
gusty westerly winds and above average temperatures along with
poor overnight recovery continue. Fire risk begins to decrease
Thursday as a cold front pushes south through the area, with fire
risk decreasing further into the end of next week into next
weekend as better overnight recovery, min RH above critical
levels, cooler temperatures, and increased clouds and moisture
prevail behind the cold front until at least next Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  66  93  57 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 84  60  89  56 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   81  68  98  65 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            81  65  93  62 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    80  60  87  52 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    84  54  85  50 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     78  66  91  58 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   78  67  91  59 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     83  64  93  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84