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000
AWUS01 KWNH 272124
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...western north Texas into southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272122Z - 280300Z

Summary...Scattered supercells are producing heavy rainfall across
the area.  Increasing convective coverage is expected over the
next 3-6 hours, which should prompt flash flooding in a few areas
through 03Z.

Discussion...A couple of intense, rotating supercells have
persisted across western north Texas over the past couple hours.
A subtle increase in low-level shear has resulted in increased
organization with these storms over the past hour as well.
Meanwhile, mid/upper forcing was beginning to emerge across the
Texas South Plains and approach a dryline extending from near
Childress, TX southward to near Sweetwater, TX.  East of that
dryline, abundantly moist and unstable air was in place,
characterized by 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.4 inch PW values.
These parameters were supporting efficient rainfall within the
storms, with 1-3 inch/hr rain rates estimated per MRMS beneath the
dominant cells.

The concern with the ongoing scenario is that convective coverage
will increase (owing to the approaching shortwave), which will
allow for increasing convective coverage and a mix of rotating
cells and linear segments.  Localized backbuilding and training of
convection both along the dryline and near convective cold pools
should allow for additional areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates
especially beneath persistent cells.  These rates should exceed
the existing 1.5-2 inch/hr FFG thresholds across the region at
times.  Isolated flash flood potential will increase through 03Z,
and locally significant impacts cannot be ruled out given the
intensity/slow movement of convection and training potential.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35149768 34709685 33769695 32899807 32449986
            32820056 34239998 34749963 35109888