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000
FXUS63 KMPX 191759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures drop to near/below freezing again tonight.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with the next rain bearing
  system arriving early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin has started to dance along
the metaphorical line of freezing temps as the mid-level clouds
continue to scatter out across the area. Any susceptible vegetation
will be at risk again tonight with temperatures expected to be 1-3
degrees cooler than what we see this morning.

In collaboration with neighboring offices, a widespread mention of
isolated-scattered snow showers has been introduced for this
afternoon. Model soundings show a cloud layer developing within the
DGZ where near dry adiabatic lapse rates will be present. There will
also be a deep enough cold layer to keep any falling precip
primarily as snow. This combination of forcing and mid-level
moisture could be enough to result in the light snow showers. The
HRRR has been one of the more aggressive models for this trend. The
main limiting factor will be the pocket of dry air below the cloudy
layer that any precipitation will need to overcome. Thus, the other
possible outcome would be widespread virga, especially the further
south you travel. Regardless of whether you see more snow or virga,
no significant accumulation is expected.

Surface high pressure will keep things relatively quiet through
Monday morning, with below average temperatures, breezy conditions,
and mostly clear skies expected.

Our next upper-level disturbance will shoot southeast from Canada
Monday night into Tuesday. The system will look to occlude and spin
across the Upper Midwest, resulting in a prolonged period of
cloudy/rainy conditions. The heaviest rain will most likely fall
during the initial passage of the system, but QPF looks generally
light overall with only a few tenths expected at most. There is
potential for thunder to mix in, especially with the initial
passage, however the ingredients for anything convective are
relatively underwhelming at the moment.

Following this system, highs will trend into the 60s as ridging
builds in from the west. The CFSv2 accumulated supercell composite
parameter also hints a more active period may be setting up for the
central CONUS towards the end of April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low BKN/OVC VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs and vsby this
afternoon. Scattered convective showers continue to make their way
across Minnesota earlier this morning and will continue into this
afternoon. Only minor adjustments have been made on TEMPO grouping
to reflect -SHSN as forecast soundings still looks to hang onto all
sites seen some form of either graupel or rain before dissipating
this evening. WNW Winds will remain blustery with except for a few
hours tonight before returning once again tomorrow.

KMSP...Scattered convective snow showers looking most likely over
KMSP between 22z and 02z this evening. No snow accumulation is
expected. Winds will remain west northwesterly and breezy this
afternoon before decreasing slightly after 19z tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 10-15g25kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dunleavy