243
FXUS63 KMPX 122321
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air Quality Advisory for Western WI until 10 AM Monday and Air
  Quality Alert for all of Minnesota until 12 PM Monday

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon
  across southern MN. A few storms could contain gusty winds
  and potentially sub-severe hail.

- A few chances for showers and storms later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Turning out to be a summer sampler as current temperature
observations reporting low to mid 80s, even isolated upper 80s for
parts of central/southern MN and western WI. These warm temps will
not reside long as a cold front continues to make its way from the
NW to the SE across Minnesota this afternoon. This frontal boundary
is well-defined on visible satellite as a stratocu field stretches
from the Twin Ports down past Sioux Falls, SD. Directly behind this
front, Canadian wildfire smoke has reached much of northern MN and
will continue to make its way southeast. Just ahead of this frontal
boundary across south-central MN, an area of more agitated cu has
initiated into showers and thunderstorms. Although severe storms are
not expected, today`s storm environment favors mainly gusty winds
given inverted-V forecast soundings coupled with steep low-level
lapse rates of 9 deg C/km. As for the wild fire smoke, air quality
is expected to be impacted the most this evening through late
tonight (for about 6-8 hours). Then air quality levels will improve
slightly to the orange category early tomorrow morning. Thus,
through collaboration with the MPCA and the WI DNR, Air quality
headlines have been issued for western WI through 10 AM Monday
and central and southern MN through 12 PM Monday.

The start of the work week will be beautiful thanks to elongated
ridging to our west with low pressure across the mid-Mississippi
River Valley. Northeasterly flow will help keep temperatures in the
low-70s with mostly clear skies and potential some patchy remnants
of wild fire smoke. As mentioned in the previous discussion the
latter half of next week looks to bring our next chances of
rainfall. A couple of shortwaves out ahead of a developing trough
over the west-central CONUS are progged to track across MN/WI
Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing for this period of rainfall
continues to remain weak amongst forecast soundings therefore
continued mentions of mainly rain with a few rumbles of thunder
possible during this time. Forecasted highs will warm back up to
near 80 degrees by Friday before another system proceeds through by
next weekend. Forecasted QPF amounts will be advertised once
ensemble membership confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A few more isolated showers with a few strikes of thunder still
possible near EAU for the first few hours of the TAF. Outside
of that the impact is all smoke. Low VFR to MVFR visibilities of
4SM to 10SM as this smoke moves through. It is already present
at AXN, RWF, and STC and will spread to the rest of the
terminals later this evening. Smoke should begin to clear out
late morning into the afternoon on Monday.

KMSP... Should remain VFR, but based on observations to the
northwest there could be periods of MVFR visibility with the
smoke overnight into the morning. Confidence was not high enough
at this time to lower the visibilities in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...NDC