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000
FXUS64 KMRX 131115
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
715 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Key Messages:

1. Sunny and much warmer today with breezy westerly winds.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a deep trough over the East Coast will be
moving eastward today and a ridge will start to move into the
region by this evening. At the surface, high pressure is over the
Southeast and Ohio Valley. Today will be sunny and warmer with
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. With ideal mixing
conditions, westerly winds will be breezy today but not near as
gusty as yesterday since the 850mb winds have decreased
significantly with the departure of the trough. The strongest
winds will be in NE Tennessee, SW Virginia and the mountains with
gusts up to 25 mph likely (30 or 35 mph in the mountains). With
clear skies and good mixing conditions, dew points were lowered a
bit from NBM guidance resulting in Minimum RH values in the upper
20 to lower 30 percent range this afternoon. With ground moisture
still present, I am not anticipating any fire weather issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warming trend begins over the weekend and continues next week.

2. Best rain chances return the second half of next week.

Discussion:

By Sunday the surface high pressure and mid level ridging will be
firmly set up over the region helping to push temperatures even
warmer across the region. Sunday will begin several days of very
warm temperatures, likely topping out in the upper 70s or 80s across
the eastern Tennessee Valley that will continue through much of the
upcoming work week.

On Monday a weak shortwave will pass through the area and try and
bring with it a weak surface front moving in from the north. Still
looks like this frontal boundary will get hung up somewhere across
the Ohio Valley, maybe down into Kentucky by Monday. Along and near
this front we could see some showers develop with the best chances
for our region across northern TN and southwest VA... However any
showers that do occur are expected to only bring brief drizzle or
light rain.

Warm and dry conditions will likely continue through Wednesday for
the vast majority of people, at which point a strong low pressure
system will swing out of the plains states towards the Great Lakes
region and help push thorugh a frontal boundary over the eastern
half of the United States. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue for most of the second half of the week as storm chances
are reinforced with a secondary system dropping into the region
behind the initial frontal boundary. Being almost a week out its
tough to resolve the details of this system, but the synoptic set up
could be conducive to seeing strong to severe thunderstorms late in
the week. Behind this system much colder temperatures look to be on
their way at some point... and cannot rule out the possibility of
frost formation in parts of northeast TN and southwest VA at some
point next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry weather and clear skies this TAF cycle. Westerly winds will
increase this morning but will not be as strong as yesterday.
Strongest winds will be near TRI with gusts up to 22 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  52  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  49  81  56 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  44  76  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...McD