820
FXUS65 KMSO 090754
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
154 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that brought rain and snow
to the Northern Rockies over the last couple days is continuing
east this morning. Some lingering moisture will be enough to fuel
showers over the Continental Divide, as well as in Silver Bow,
Deer Lodge, and Powell Counties into this afternoon. All other
locales in the Northern Rockies should expect decreasing clouds
and increasing temperatures as high pressure begins to build.

As high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies, an area of low
pressure will expand over the Great Basin through the weekend.
This high-over-low configuration is a blocking pattern that will
keep the Northern Rockies under high pressure through the weekend.
Daytime high temperatures will rise, with Sunday looking like the
peak.  Expect valley highs across central Idaho and western
Montana to range from the mid 70s to mid 80s during this period.
Confidence in this forecast is high, with about 80 percent of
ensemble solutions pointing towards high temperatures below 4000
feet to exceed 80 degrees on Sunday.

Looking ahead into early next week, the ensemble mean guidance
suggests the high pressure ridge will begin to flatten, initiating
a cooling trend. However, individual ensemble members diverge
significantly on the specifics of the weather pattern, introducing
notable uncertainties in the temperature and precipitation
forecasts.


&&

.AVIATION... The surface low that brought rain and snow over the
last couple days will slowly move eastward, reducing showers
across the Northern Rockies. Shallow fog may develop early this
tomorrow morning for KGPI, KMSO and KHRF, along with a low stratus
deck and chances for morning showers at KBTM. Expect decreasing
clouds this afternoon and evening at all terminals.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$