Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 151046
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
346 AM PDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend bringing an extended period of very warm and dry weather
to the region through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday: As the ridge continues to strengthen along
the coast, upper level moisture will warp over the top of the
ridge. It will lead to mid to high level clouds passing through
the region today. Ensembles continue to build the ridge along the
coast and lead to a dry, warm period. The Inland Northwest can
expect plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will warm warm few degrees
from previous day before stabilizing over the weekend and through
early next week. Highs for the period will start in the mid 40s
to 50s and reach 60s by Saturday. Some areas in the Central Basin
could reach low 70s by the start of the week. With these warm
temperatures, snow melt runoff will bring localized rises on area
stream creeks. For now, these do not expect reach impact stage.
With little cloud cover, diurnal temperature swings will large as
overnight lows are expected to stay in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Boundary layer moisture will decrease as the cool, dry air
continues to push into the region. It will decrease the areal
coverage of early morning fog for the Inland Northwest. Areas of
concern for the fog are the Northeast WA valleys and North ID
valleys.

Ensembles are showing a transition occurring late Wednesday into
Thursday. A polar front jet will begin to press south into the
region. It will begin to breakdown the ridge and bring the next
round of precip to the region. There are several differences
between the ensembles to put a lot of confidence in the timing and
amounts. Temperatures will trend cooler but still remain above
normal for this time of year. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Weather for the next 24 hours will focus around the
potential for areas of valley fog in northeast Washington and
north Idaho. With less moisture in the boundary layer and upper
level clouds trapping some surface heat, early morning fog
development is not expected for TAF sites. For places like DEW,
SZT, COE there is a 5-8% chance of seeing a reduction in
visibility. Confidence is high for conditions to remain at VFR
through the next 24 hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Radiation fog
forecasting is a low confidence endeavor especially as the air
mass warms. Our valley spots where cool air drains/collects
overnight will be more problematic including Coeur d`Alene,
Sandpoint, Spokane Felts, and maybe even Lewiston.

------------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  35  62  38  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  55  34  60  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        56  36  61  39  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       59  38  64  42  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       57  33  63  35  65  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  35  57  36  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        55  37  62  38  65  41 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     61  36  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      61  41  65  44  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  39  67  41  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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