Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
000
FXUS66 KOTX 150501
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1001 PM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend bringing an extended period of very warm and dry weather
to the region through the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through next Thursday: The period is expected to be dominated
by a ridge through at least Tuesday with beautiful mild and dry
conditions. Morning model guidance indicates a slower breakdown of
the ridge taking shape Wednesday instead of Tuesday which keeps mild
temperatures and dry weather around 1 more day. 58% of the global
ensemble still has 850 mb temperatures of 8C in the Inland Northwest
Wednesday the 20th. That would correspond to temperatures in the 50s
and 60s. Colder solutions have temperatures in the 40s and 50s with
greater precipitation chances. Confidence is much higher in a
cooldown next Thursday with mixed precipitation chances.
Biggest weather concern is widespread fog as models did not handle
last night`s fog well. Increasingly dry boundary layer moisture
through the period will decrease the fog threat eventually. As
always, fog prone areas will be one to watch (Spokane area, Northern
valleys, ID mountain valleys). /Butler
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Weather for the next 24 hours will focus around the
potential for areas of valley fog in northeast Washington and
north Idaho. Comparing tonight with last night, the humidity trend
is drier and temperature trend is warmer. Forecast soundings would
argue little to no chance for fog development. For places like
DEW, SZT, COE there is a 5-8% chance of seeing a reduction in
visibility. Confidence is high for conditions to remain at VFR
through the next 24 hours.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Radiation fog
forecasting is a low confidence endeavor especially as the air
mass warms. Our valley spots where cool air drains/collects
overnight will be more problematic including Coeur d`Alene,
Sandpoint, Spokane Felts, and maybe even Lewiston. /Dewey
------------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 31 55 35 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 31 54 33 61 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 31 55 35 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 35 59 38 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 29 55 32 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 30 52 35 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 32 54 37 61 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 32 61 35 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 38 60 40 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 36 62 39 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$