Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
000
FXUS66 KOTX 131731
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 AM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered mountain snow showers will linger over the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday while mostly sunny skies are in the
forecast for central and eastern Washington. High pressure will
build over the Pacific Northwest Thursday bringing an extended
period of very warm and dry weather to the region through the
middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday....The ensemble model solutions remain in
very good agreement that a very anomalously strong upper level
ridge will remain fixed over the region. This will equate to dry
and very warm weather for the middle of March. On Sunday, 850 mb
temperatures will range from 8-10C which represents the 90-99th
percentile for this time of year. Monday could be a repeat
performance if not a tad bit warmer. So how do these values
translate to surface temperatures? We are likely looking at highs
in the 60s on Sunday with some locales across the southern
Columbia Basin touching 70. On Monday the NBM is giving a
significant portion of eastern Washington and the LC valley a good
chance of exceeding 70 degrees. Chances are near 80 percent in
Lewiston, a 40 percent chance in Wenatchee, and around a 30
percent chance for Moses Lake. Although these values shouldn’t
break any records for the date it will be close. Spokane’s record
for Mar 18 is 68 set on 1947 and we are forecasting 65. Omak (72
in 1910 vs 70) and Pullman (67 in 1934 vs 65) will also be in the
ballpark.
Tuesday into Wednesday...This is where the model agreement begins
to falter as there are vast differences in the evolution of the
ridge. The GEFS solutions (and just a sprinkling of ENS and
Canadian members) advertise a rapid breakdown with a trough moving
into the area. This notion is represented by about a third of all
ensemble runs. Meanwhile the majority of the remaining members
keep a strong ridge over us at least through Tuesday and then show
a breakdown. In any event we suspect this will bring a cooling
trend to the region, but by how much remains uncertain. Leaning
toward the majority solutions we’d only expect a subtle cooldown
(if any on Tuesday) with highs in the 60s, dropping into the 50s
on Wednesday. The breakdown will also bring a return of
precipitation. At this point it does not look like a significant
amount anywhere in the Inland Northwest. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Conditions are expected to improve toward VFR by 19-21z
for KCOE and KSZT. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail. There
is a 20-40% chance of fog in the northeastern Washington and North
Idaho valleys Thursday morning from 10z-16z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions by 21z for KCOE. Low confidence
for fog in northeastern Washington and North Idaho valleys
Thursday morning from 10z-16z.
------------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 48 28 50 31 54 33 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 44 27 48 29 53 30 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 44 29 49 30 55 33 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 50 33 54 34 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 48 26 51 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 41 27 45 29 49 32 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 40 28 47 30 54 33 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 54 29 57 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 52 33 55 37 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 54 32 57 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$