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000
FXUS63 KPAH 112313
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions continue on Friday with west-northwest winds
  gusting 25 to 35 mph.

- Warm and dry weekend ahead with high temperatures ranging from the
  mid 70s to low 80s, warmest on Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures continue next week with highs in the 80s
  forecast through Thursday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return next week, with the highest
  chances late Tuesday into Tuesday night and again on Thursday.
  Severe storms may be possible with both of these systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The 500mb trough axis over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley will pivot
northeastward into tonight, taking most of the shower activity and
cloud cover with it. However, at the same time a secondary piece of
energy dives south out of the Midwest and may kick off a few showers
late tonight into Friday morning across the Evansville Tri-state
region. A tight pressure gradient will remain across the region into
Friday between the departing low pressure system moving into the
Eastern Great Lakes and high pressure over the Southern Plains.
BUFKIT soundings indicate a near-surface stable layer developing
tonight though, which should largely hinder gusts and keep sustained
winds in check. As mixing in the boundary layer increases tomorrow,
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are likely again.

Temperatures rebound nicely over the weekend with highs on Saturday
ranging from the mid 70s to around 80 and then upper 70s to lower
80s on Sunday. Upper level ridging will build across the Central
CONUS. However, there is a very weak wave that may bring an increase
in clouds late Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS and a few
ensemble members try to squeeze a little light QPF out of it,
but the chances seem quite slim at this time.

Shortwave energy will eject into the Central CONUS late Monday into
Tuesday. The surface low will lift well northwest of our region
through Tuesday. An upper level jet max will spread northeast across
the Ozarks and into the Ohio Valley during this time. SPC Day 6
currently has most of the Quad-State highlighted with 15% severe
probabilities. This seems reasonable given the overall pattern.
Also worth noting that the CIPS Analogs indicate a rather wide
area with 60-80% probabilities of at least 1 severe report.
Ensemble members are somewhat varied on timing and overall
evolution, with the highest instability possibly staying west of
our cwa. While NBM only has dewpoints around 60, some guidance
suggests they may be a decent amount higher, possibly into the
mid 60s, ahead of the Tuesday night fropa. After what appears to
be a brief break on Wednesday, another system may drag another
cold front through the region on Thursday. This second system
could have even more moisture to work with and potentially
higher instability as well. Both systems will be something to
monitor as we get closer in time.

Temperatures next week will be well above normal, with many
locations reaching 80 degrees for 4 or 5 consecutive days. This
extended duration of 80+ temps hasn`t been observed in our forecast
area this early in the season (before April 20th) since 2017. Record
highs probably won`t be challenged, since they are largely in the
upper 80s. However, record max minimums (warm lows) only falling
into the mid 60s several nights may challenge a few records. Our
current forecast has Paducah remaining above 60 degrees for
overnight lows for 5 consecutive days. The last time we achieved
this many warm nights in a row (above 60) before April 20th was back
in 2002!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Main
concern tonight is the LLWS at the TAF sites. A low level
inversion is expected to set up and bring our winds down to
around 10kts at the sfc, but winds will stay elevated at around
2,000 ft at around 40-45 kts. Clouds will steadily move out over
the next few hours but could come back at KEVV and KOWB tomorrow
morning for a bit.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SHAWKEY