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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230535
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead tonight through Tuesday, then
shift to our southeast. The resulting southwest flow will bring
warming temperatures through mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 PM Monday...

High pressure extends form the Deep South across the Carolinas under
shortwave ridging in the wake of the departing upper trough.
Significant drying below 500mb was observed between the 12Z/22 and
00Z/23 raobs at GSO with PW dropping to 0.3 inches.  Clear skies
are expected overnight with just some very thin and dissipating
cirrus spilling southeast out of the Midwest. A Frost Advisory is in
effect until 8am Tuesday for all of the CWA except for Guilford and
Forsyth Counties tonight based on latest MET and MEX statistical
guidance, which tend to be favored in strong radiational cooling
scenarios. This morning`s 1000-850mb thickness was 1316m at GSO
which would also lean toward more mid 30s with no airmass
moderation, and dewpoints are mostly int he 30s, so near surface
moisture is also favorable. -BLS



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

Central NC will be under the influence of shortwave ridging on
Tuesday between a closed mid/upper low moving NE in the western
Atlantic and a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Upper
Great Lakes. So height rises and subsidence will keep us dry and
sunny. At the surface, ~1025 mb high pressure centered over GA and
the Carolinas on Tuesday morning will shift SE and offshore in the
afternoon. This will shift the low-level flow to a southwesterly
direction, helping bring 1000-850 mb thicknesses 20-30 m higher than
today, supporting warmer high temperatures mainly in the lower-70s.
This is still about 1-3 degrees below normal.

Lows on Tuesday night will be near normal in the SE and slightly
above normal in the NW, where mid and high clouds will be on the
increase in advance of the aforementioned northern stream shortwave
that will be moving into the OH Valley and Appalachians. This will
make for fairly uniform lows in the upper-40s to lower-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 241 PM Monday...

An upper level trough will swing across the Northeast Wednesday
morning followed by a weak shortwave swinging across the northern
Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night. By Friday, upper level ridging
will take over through the weekend  resulting in fair weather for
the latter half of the long term period. At the surface, a low
pressure system centered over the southern portions of Quebec early
Wednesday morning will trail a cold front south along the
Appalachian Mountains. While showers will be persistent west and
north of the mountains latest model guidance is showing much of the
forcing loosing energy east of the mountain range thus limiting the
chance for rain across Central NC. Expect some passing sprinkles
Wednesday afternoon as the front moves across the region. As the
front moves offshore overnight, a cool dry high pressure will build
into the region with northeasterly winds taking over. If conditions
clear out early enough Thursday morning, light NE winds could help
result in some patchy fog across portions of the NE Piedmont and
Coastal Plain. Thursday and Friday are expected to be fair weather
days with mostly sunny skies and temps in the upper 60s north, to
low/mid 70s across the south. As high pressure and upper level
ridging strengthens across our region over the weekend and early
next week temperatures are expected to increase quickly with highs
in the mid/upper 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, then by Monday
mid 80s across the entire region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Expect clear skies and calm to light winds
overnight, with continued clear skies and winds increasing from NW
to SE through the afternoon Tuesday.

Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through Sat. There are
two possible exceptions. First would be a small chance for a brief
period of light showers/sprinkles and/or borderline VFR/MVFR cigs as
a weak cold front moves into/through the area on Wednesday. The
other would be a possible brief period of borderline VFR/MVFR cigs
Thu morn/early aft. However, confidence in both occurrences of
restrictions remains low at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-
023>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC/pwb