Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 231115
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Medicine Lodge RX...BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
515 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions are expected at the burn unit today. Skies will be
mostly sunny, though high clouds will increase by mid afternoon.
Wind will be on the lighter side, generally upslope or out of the
southwest all day. Humidity will drop through the afternoon,
bottoming out in the upper 20 percent range around 1700.
Light/downslope wind is expected after 2100.

Wednesday will be warmer and drier with similar upslope winds. A
more unsettled pattern begins to push in Thursday, bringing breezier
winds and then cooler/wetter conditions Friday through the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (82200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  25  20  27  33  47  52  47  49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............35  38  40  42  43  44  45  45  46
RH..............40  38  36  31  33  32  31  29  28
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   8   10  12  12  12  12  12  12
Ridge wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.2 2.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.9 5.9 5.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  16  16  16  16  16  16
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100022  22  22  75  75  75  82  82  82

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east 7
                    to 10 mph early in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 13 mph shifting to the east 15
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (42600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........47  53  61  65  62  55  47  40  36  33  32  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............46  45  42  40  40  40  40  39  39  38  38  38
RH..............28  32  36  39  41  41  39  42  42  44  42  42
20 FT wind dir..S   S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   6   7   10  10  9   10  10  10  9   10  8
20 FT wind gust.10  8   10  13  13  12  13  13  13  12  13  11
Ridge wind dir..SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.9 3.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  17  17  17  17  17  17  16  16  16
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100043  43  43  7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......East around 15 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 15 mph shifting to the west
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (89800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  33  34  33  29  24  20  18  18  19  20  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............38  40  44  47  48  50  52  54  55  56  57  57
RH..............42  41  38  35  34  31  29  26  24  22  21  20
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   9   5   5   7   8   9   9   9   10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.12  12  6   6   10  11  11  12  12  13  13  12
Ridge wind dir..E   E   E   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 6.0 6.0 6.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  13  13  16  16  16  17  17  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10006   6   6   14  14  14  58  58  58  90  90  90

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers, isolated thunderstorms and snow
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. South
winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Cooler. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Showers and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
40s. North winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Straub
Requested by...Derek Trauntvein
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411860.0/RIW
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dtrauntv@blm.gov
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