373
FXUS61 KRLX 011822
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
222 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Models showing a frontal boundary moving through the area this
afternoon and evening. Due to a lack of moisture however, no
precipitation is expected, only a few clouds. A high pressure
system will provide calm winds over the area tonight. Drier air
in the lower levels today will mix down and cause surface
dewpoints to drop enough such that fog shouldn`t be an issue
for most locations tonight. Light winds and dry weather will
continue on Thursday with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as upper level ridging
slowly works east through the region. Despite daytime highs nearly
15 degrees above normal values for this time of the year, high
temperature records should be secure.

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along surface low pressure transiting the Upper
Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up
toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated
with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night. Upper level
support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing
the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday. This will also
keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow
storm motions. Could potentially have some very isolated water
issues accumulate with multiple slow moving storms moving over the
same location, but given the state of vegetation and recent dry
conditions, concerns are relatively low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along surface low pressure transiting the Upper
Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up
toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated
with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night. Upper level
support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing
the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday. This will also
keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow
storm motions in diurnally enhanced convection. Could potentially
have some very isolated water issues accumulate with multiple slow
moving storms moving over the same location, but given the state of
vegetation and recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

A northern stream shortwave approaching late Saturday night into
Sunday morning will better focus precipitation chances, but a modest
increase in mid-level flow will also allow for faster storm motions
further limiting any threat for flash flooding.

Should see a brief break in showery activity late Sunday into early
Monday morning as transient ridging briefly builds ahead of warm
frontal passage during the day Monday bringing additional showers
and thunderstorms.

The weak flow regime comes to an end Wednesday as ridging over the
eastern half of the country shifts east allowing stronger upper
level flow to return to the region. This would yield increasing
concerns for strong to severe storms during the day Wednesday,  but
this will hinge heavily on eventual cold frontal timing.

Daytime highs remain modestly above normal values for this time of
the year, but with added Gulf influenced moisture overnight lows
will be within a few degrees of their record high minimums
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions can generally be expected through the period,
although a few locations could see fog late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not occur late tonight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY