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000
FXUS61 KRNK 180116
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
916 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low over the Great Lakes will move east with a weak
cold front crossing the central Appalachians late tonight. Most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity with this feature will
remain to our north. A dry day is expected Thursday with
northwesterly winds. A much stronger front will cross our area
Friday bringing some showers and storms, then cooler weather
arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 915 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. An isolated shower is possible for Greenbrier County in West
Virginia tonight.

2. Drier weather with breezy winds are expected on Thursday.

An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes with a weak
cold front crossing the Appalachian Mountains later tonight.
Most of the convective activity with this frontal boundary will
remain to our north, but an isolated shower may reach parts of
Greenbrier County in West Virginia during the next few hours.
Clouds will steadily decrease although some upslope cloud cover
may exist in southeast West Virginia as the wind shifts towards
the northwest.

Winds will gust up to 25 mph along the higher elevations on
Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal with
lows ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s, but highs
should climb into the 70s for the mountains and lower 80s for
the Piedmont. Dewpoints will also fall into the upper 30s to
the upper 40s by Thursday afternoon, which will push relative
humidities below 30 percent at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and thunderstorms Friday

2: Temperatures above normal

Low pressure and an associated cold front will move across the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states Friday and Friday night.
This will result in a good chance of showers and a few storms
across our mountains with higher uncertainty to the east. Attm
models struggle bringing the shower activity east of the
mountains, with QPF ranging from a quarter inch in the mountains
to less than a tenth of an inch in the piedmont.

The front is forecast to stall over the Carolinas Friday night
and may delay any clearing, but do think that temperatures will
come back down into a normal range. Until then expect above
normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain chances Saturday, Sunday, and Wednesday

2: Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

A weak low pressure system over the Carolinas will move off the
coast Saturday afternoon. Once this low is offshore, a cold
front will slide across the area Saturday night, followed by
cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Some showers
and a few thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage
Saturday afternoon and evening.

A disturbance in eastern Texas will track across the Deep South
Saturday, then move off the Carolina Coast Sunday night. The
northern edge of the rain shield is expected to reach the
Highway 460 corridor Sunday afternoon, then exit the piedmont
around midnight. An area of weak high pressure will skirt across
the region Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures to return
to near normal levels. Showers reenter the area Wednesday as
another cold front tracks over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected along and east of the Blue Ridge
through Thursday. Gusty southwest winds up to 20 knots will be
possible for BLF and LWB during the next few hours ahead of a
weak cold front. As the cold front moves eastward and the winds
shift towards the west and eventually to the northwest by
Thursday morning, some MVFR clouds may develop for BLF and LWB.
Northwest winds will gust up to 20 knots during Thursday, but it
should stay dry with VFR conditions expected for all terminals
as the earlier cloud cover for BLF and LWB dissipates.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected for Thursday night into early
Friday. However, a cold front will cross the area by late Friday
with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. The cold
front will exit eastward by Saturday, but some MVFR ceilings
may linger in the mountains through the morning. North winds
will provide some clearing for late Saturday, but more moisture
may surge northeastward during Sunday and Monday to bring
another chance of rain.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PW