001
FXUS64 KSHV 300549
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Except for the lone supercell thunderstorm that produced up to
golf ball sized hail in McCurtain County earlier this evening, the
forecast is in pretty good shape attm. Did remove evening pop that
was inserted across our far northwest zones to account for this
lone convection. Skies are clearing across our eastern half and
given the clear skies, light winds and wet soils, we are likely
going to see widespread fog overnight. Some of this will be dense
but not confident on just where the most dense fog will be so will
forgo a Dense Fog Advisory attm. Forecast min temps are in the
ballpark and forecast update is out as well.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Weak upper-level ridging to prevail through the short-term period
allowing for dry conditions areawide. Light and variable winds
overnight to remain light and out of the southeast around 5 mph on
Tuesday due to a relaxed pressure gradient across the region.
High temperatures are forecast to climb into the 80s on Tuesday,
falling into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday night.

With light southerly flow, a weak surface boundary lingering a
across the region, and a moist airmass in place from recent
rainfall, fog may be an issue tonight. For this forecast package,
went ahead and made mention of widespread fog areawide tonight.
/05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Southerly flow to increase on Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens across the region. Additionally, with near zonal flow
aloft, moisture to increase allowing for mostly cloudy skies
areawide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon along a lingering frontal boundary that is
forecast to lift north with high temperatures in the warm sector
behind the front to climb into the mid 80s.

A surface low across the Central Plains will lift northeast on
Thursday leaving a frontal boundary in its wake that will push
south across the ArkLaTex on Thursday night bringing another round
of widespread convection across the region.

Impulses moving downstream within a southwest upper-flow pattern
interacting with a remnant frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex
will maintain a chance for scattered convection through the
remainder of the work week into the weekend. Storms producing
locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For the 30/06Z TAFs, generally VFR conditions continue to prevail
across the ArkLaTex, with the notable exception of areas of
accelerated fog development in the pre-dawn hours, resulting in
periods of drops to IFR and LIFR VIS with VV CIGs. This fog should
rapidly burn off after daybreak, returning quickly to VFR
conditions, followed by development of a Cu field during the
afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable to near calm
overnight, becoming easterly and southerly during the day at
speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

/26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  66  88  70 /  10  10  40  20
MLU  84  62  87  67 /   0   0  30  10
DEQ  85  61  85  66 /   0   0  30  20
TXK  86  64  87  69 /   0   0  30  20
ELD  85  61  88  65 /   0   0  30  10
TYR  86  66  85  69 /  10   0  40  40
GGG  87  66  86  69 /  10   0  40  30
LFK  87  67  85  69 /  20  10  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26