241
FXUS64 KSHV 032019
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
319 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection that originated across Oklahoma and North Texas late
yesterday has finally departed the area as a shortwave trough
lifts northeast towards the Tennessee River Valley. Farther
southwest, another weak perturbation in the southwesterly flow
aloft has helped to sustained showers and thunderstorms along a
remnant outflow boundary across Southeast Texas and South
Louisiana. Radar trends over the last couple of hours continue to
show redevelopment along the northwest flank of this line in
Central Texas. So far, this activity has been quickly weakening
with eastward extent as it nears our Deep East Texas counties,
mostly likely encountering a more stable airmass. Current thinking
is the heaviest precip should remain south and southwest of the
area and should dissipate by sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating and weakening of large scale forcing. The latest CAMs
suggest a few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
this evening and tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20, but only
slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast.

Overnight, another complex of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to form ahead of a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma,
which should dive southeast towards the CWA. This complex should
be weakening as it moves into southeast Oklahoma around daybreak
Saturday. However, renewed development and intensification is
expected, especially during peak daytime heating in the
afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs and short- range ensembles,
current thinking coverage will mainly be scattered but will likely
coverage much of the area. Given the expected coverage, I felt
the NBM PoPs were too way and much of the short-term rain chances
were trended toward the HREF. There should be enough instability
and deep layer shear to support a marginal risk for large hail and
damaging winds, especially during Saturday afternoon through
early evening. Initial development in the afternoon may begin as
far north as I-30 before spreading southeast across the region.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another complex of
strong to severe storms will develop along the dryline in West
Texas and may begin to affect the area early Sunday morning.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Robust convection will likely be ongoing across the area near or
shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. While the cold front is once
again expected to stall in our northern zones before retreating
back to the north again, a potent shortwave trough moving across
Texas and Oklahoma should help sustain strong thunderstorms for
much of the day Sunday. A few isolated severe storms will be
possible, mainly posing a risk for damaging winds. Rain chances
should diminish during the evening as the shortwave lifts
northeast and forcing weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible, especially in Deep East Texas south of I-20. However,
current thinking is that the threat for flooding will remain
isolated and localized, and it will have been a few days between
rain events. However, if QPF amounts increase in future
forecasts, a Flood Watch may need to be issued.

Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast into next week with
near daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially north of I-20 as deep southerly flow persists across
the region. A longwave trough will move northeast across the
Central and Northern Plains pushing a cold front closer to the
region. This should bring a chance for more strong, possibly,
severe thunderstorms to parts of the area next Tuesday and
Wednesday. The extent of the severe weather threat is still highly
uncertain, but the best chances appear to be north of I-20, and
especially across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas.

Another growing concern will be the unseasonable heat. Strong
southerly flow and warm air advection will result in rising
temperatures despite the persistent rain chances in the forecast.
From Tuesday through Thursday, there is a high chance (60 to 80
percent chance) of daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or
greater across much of Louisiana and into portions of Southwest
Arkansas and Deep East Texas. Combined with the high humidity,
peak heat index values should be near or above 100 degrees F.
Cooler temperatures may return by the end of the week.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, we began the day w/ a TS outflow
sandwich from NtoS along I-20 w/ KMLU about to scatter in the
wake. The N boundary won out holding over E TX, but may go quick
gusting from the S now . We have a cluster of TS lifting toward
KLFK with a cautious tempo there 18-21Z. Otherwise, may add VCTS
to KTYR/KGGG/KSHV if the sea breeze joins in later today. We
should see a quiet night with IFR/MVFR 06-15Z and better TS
chances in the aftn hrs Sat & nocturnal again daybreak on Sun.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  85  68  79 /  20  50  40  80
MLU  64  86  67  80 /  20  40  30  60
DEQ  64  82  65  75 /  20  40  50  90
TXK  66  84  66  78 /  20  40  40  80
ELD  63  84  65  79 /  20  50  30  70
TYR  68  82  66  78 /  10  40  60  80
GGG  67  83  67  78 /  10  50  50  80
LFK  67  84  68  80 /  10  40  40  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...24