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000
FXUS64 KSJT 200026
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
726 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms. An upper
level trough will be centered across southern California and western
Arizona this evening. Models are indicating a disturbance tracking
across the Edwards Plateau late this evening, then across the
southern half of the area early Saturday morning. This will result
in the development of showers and thunderstorms as this feature
tracks across the region. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on the
extent of development overnight, with some CAMs (HRRR) showing only
isolated shower and thunderstorm development, and other CAMs (NAM
Nest) showing fairly widespread development. Confidence remains
low on the PoPs overnight, but the current forecast shows a slight
chance to chance late this evening, with increasing rain chances
after midnight. The main concern will be locally heavy rainfall.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
Big Country to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

The aforementioned upper level trough will slowly approach the
forecast area on Saturday. This will result in the development of
numerous showers and thunderstorms by mid to late morning across our
western counties, with this activity spreading east through the
day. Although this does look like a more widespread rain event
across the region, some areas will ultimately get more than
others. The highest totals look to be across the Big Country.
Some locations could see in excess of 1 inch, while others could
see less than one half inch. Any thunderstorms will have the
potential of producing locally heavy rainfall. In addition, a few
strong storms are possible, mainly across the southern half of the
region, with large hail being the main concern. Highs on Saturday
will be well below seasonal normals. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 50s across the Big Country to the low to mid 60s across most
of the rest of the region. Portions of the I-10 corridor may top
our near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Precipitation will begin to decrease from west to east Saturday
night, as a the short wave trough moves east of the area.
Temperatures will be quite chilly Saturday night, with overnight
lows in the mid and upper 40s. Cool surface high will move in from
the north on Sunday. Skies will be mostly cloudy for a good
portion of the day, with some pockets of sunshine by late
afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool on Sunday, with highs
mainly in the lower 60s.

A warming trend will begin early next week, as southerly flow
returns and mid level ridging builds over the Plains. An upper
level storms system is forecast to move across the upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region early next week, with an associated weak
cold front possibly reaching the Big Country Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Could see some isolated convection mainly north if I-20
during this time frame and will keep low POPs intact for now.
Models show an upper level trough developing across the Desert
Southwest by mid to late week, with the dryline setting up across
West Texas. This pattern would be favorable for some thunderstorms
late next week, so will maintain low POPs during this time frame.
Highs on Monday will be in the 70s, warming into the 80s for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR ceilings will persist throught the next 24 hours with some
terminals seeing IFR to LIFR conditions occasionally under
lowering ceilings and heavier precipitation. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible after midnight tonight, with a
better chance for numerous showers and thunderstorms late Saturday
morning into the afternoon hours. Northeast winds should
generally remain below 12 knots through tomorrow morning, then
become breezy by the late morning with some gusts as high has
25 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     52  58  44  61 /  90  90  70   0
San Angelo  56  63  45  63 /  70  90  50   0
Junction    59  72  48  66 /  40  90  60   0
Brownwood   56  61  45  61 /  70  90  90   0
Sweetwater  51  56  45  61 /  80 100  60  10
Ozona       58  66  47  63 /  60  90  40   0
Brady       58  64  47  61 /  50  90  80   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...TP