Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
096 FXUS66 KSTO 290930 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 230 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .Synopsis... Mild and dry weather this week. Occasionally breezy. && Dry and mild weather will persist through the week as several short-wave troughs pass to the north over broad ridging covering the eastern Pacific and NorCal. Precipitation chances will remain well to the north of the region across the PacNW, though occasional bouts of north to east wind are expected as surface pressure gradient tightens in the wake of each of these waves. The strongest period of northerly winds are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday with gusts of 35-45 mph possible in the Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain with the strongest winds forecast to occur to the northwest of Sacramento along the west side of the valley (NBM probabilities are around 60-80 percent for reaching that range for wind gusts). Difficult driving conditions can be expected and loose objects may blow around. Valley high temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... Dry weather expected Friday as models agree in showing short wave upper ridging moving through. Forecast then becomes less certain over the weekend into Monday as models diverge significantly with solutions. Ensembles point towards upper troughing over the area, but clusters reveal significant variance in progged depth of wave. NBM showing POPs over the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Sat/Sun. GFS advertising deep upper low off the CA coast this weekend, spreading associated precip into the CWA Sunday PM into Monday. EC keeps waves far enough north to keep the forecast dry. Higher confidence in significant cooling next weekend with high temperatures lowering to near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. In Central Vly, areas NWly sfc wind up to 17 kts with lcl gusts to 25 kts possible thru 00z Tue otherwise wind mainly below 12 kts. In foothills/mtns lcl NWly sfc wind gusts up to 30 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$