Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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789 FXUS62 KTAE 111732 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 132 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Hourly sky cover and dew points were tweaked to account for current trends. The 12Z surface analysis shows that we are now fully post frontal with the boundary now stretched across the Central Gulf through the FL Peninsula. A dry airmass continues to work its way further into the region, which will preclude any precipitation. Although, light radar returns are apparent this morning, it is likely virga. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Cold front stretches this morning from the Florida panhandle to southern Georgia with dewpoints falling through the 60s to upper 50s north of the front with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s south of this feature in the eastern Big Bend. Expect the front to continue working south this morning. Dry conditions are expected this weekend with some increase in high clouds from the west. More seasonal conditions are on tap with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s. Dewpoints will continue falling into the 50s so a welcome reprieve to the typical mugginess is in order. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Fairly benign conditions are expected until Monday afternoon when the first of several shortwaves is expected to move across the region. We`ll have increased rain chances Monday afternoon as southerly return flow gets reestablished along with instability and upper-level support. Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 The aforementioned shortwave will be the first in a parade of shortwaves that look to move across the north Gulf states with several rounds of weather possible throughout the week. Given upper- level support and good instability and decent low-level shear there`s a fair chance for multiple rounds of severe weather. Given the mesoscale nature of these disturbances it`s far too early to get into specifics, however, once we get into Tuesday and beyond we`re looking at an active period. Friday`s shortwave looks to be the most potent, as of right now, with strong dynamics in place for mid-May. Be sure to come back for updates over the next few days as we monitor it`s evolution in the model world. Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 A dry post-frontal airmass will make for continued VFR conds thru this TAF period. Light NW winds turn NE by late tmrw morning. Thickening upper clouds spread from west to east beginning tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 As of 12Z, a front was analyzed across the Central Gulf through FL Peninsula. Offshore buoys were reporting NE winds between 10 and 15 kts with seas below 4 ft and a dominant period of 6 sec. From CWF Synopsis...Weekend boating conditions will be met with fair weather in the wake of a front before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase early next week with the potential for impactful maritime convection on Tuesday. Northerly winds turn more southerly ahead of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond with waveheights in the 4 to 6 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Dry conditions are on tap this weekend behind a cold front passage with winds from the north to northwest as high pressure settles upstream. Winds will gradually clock around to the south Monday as that high pressure moves east and a warm front moves from the south through the area and moisture starts to increase as a result. Rain and thunderstorms overspread the region Monday and Tuesday. Overall, dispersions are favorable through the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches throughout next week. This could introduce some riverine concerns, however, it`s too far out to say with any degree of confidence. Most of this precip is expected after Tuesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 60 Panama City 63 82 68 82 / 0 10 10 70 Dothan 58 82 64 82 / 0 10 10 80 Albany 57 84 64 80 / 0 0 10 70 Valdosta 58 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 60 Cross City 59 86 65 89 / 0 10 0 50 Apalachicola 65 81 71 81 / 0 10 0 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Oliver/IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Oliver