533
FXUS62 KTBW 281259
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
859 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Comfortably warm, dry and occasionally breezy springtime
conditions to end the weekend with ridging aloft to the surface.
Ridging features to weaken late today, tonight and into Monday
with lighter winds and the seabreeze returning Monday afternoon.
Latest grids and forecasts on track.

Only wx concern is for mariners as the gusty easterly winds
continue to produce choppy elevated seas away from the immediate
coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with another day of diurnal SCT lcl
BKN050-060 cumulus clouds and cirrus aloft with gusty easterly
winds through the evening surge. Winds decrease overnight and
clouds fade as the gradient is expected to weaken Monday with the
afternoon seabreeze returning near the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Ridging aloft and at the surface remain over the state this
morning leading to another primarily dry and occasionally breezy
day across the area. Given the brisk easterly low-level flow, a
stray shower cannot completely be ruled out this afternoon as
Atlantic moisture moves across the peninsula, however, PoPs remain
below 10 percent with no measurable precip expected. Afternoon
highs likely to remain within a few degrees of climatology, in the
mid to upper 80s. Ridging gradually weakens and shifts east on
Mon-Tue as a shortwave pushes across the E U.S., allowing the
gradient over the area to relax while the E-SE flow diminishes a
bit, enabling sea breeze development during the afternoons. A
slight uptick in shower chances is likely on Tue-Wed afternoons as
moisture briefly increases over the area, before high pressure
again builds over the E U.S./Seaboard over the latter half of the
week. Temps increase a few degrees with lows in the mid to upper
60s, while highs range from the mid 80s coastal due to the sea
breeze, to the upper 80s/lower 90s away from the coast. PoPs
remain generally around 10 percent or less, with perhaps a stray
shower possible mainly interior and south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High pressure with a tight pressure gradient remains over the
waters today with advisory conditions diminishing to cautionary
levels this morning. Winds diminish further this afternoon before
another round of cautionary level conditions likely with the
easterly surge this evening and overnight, before diminishing
below cautionary levels on Monday and remaining there through the
remainder of the week. The sea breeze likely returns early-mid
week with winds turning onshore during the afternoons along the
coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High pressure remains the primary influence over the area through the
week with minimum RH values in the 30s-40s to approaching critical
thresholds for a few hours in the afternoons. Gusty easterly winds
possible today during the afternoon into evening hours with high
dispersions in some areas. Fire weather risk remains somewhat
elevated with these conditions, however, fuels expected to remain
moist enough to preclude additional concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  67  86  70 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  87  65  87  68 /  10   0  10  10
GIF  85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  88  65  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  87  58  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  86  70  86  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis