800
FXUS62 KTBW 051756
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
156 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Adequate moisture and heat today will result in some seabreeze
shower and storms mainly late this afternoon and into the evening
hours.

As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead.
This will help to suppress any shower active that might want to
form in the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in hot
days without the help of clouds and storms to cool things down.
High will slowly climb day to day with the peak being Wednesday
through Friday where highs could reach the mid to upper 90`s
inland.

As we go through the weekend a cold front will push through the
area helping to cool temperatures back to average with high in the
upper 80`s to around 90 degrees. A few showers will be possible
with the front but for the most part models are keeping it dry as
it pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period outside of
thunderstorms. All sites except LAL should see a seabreeze wind
shift by the late afternoon hours if they haven`t already. Some
isolated thunderstorms will be possible today at most TAF sites in
the late afternoon and evening hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure will be over the are for Sunday and through
the week. This will lead to lighter winds generally staying below 10
kts through the period. The best chance to see any storms will be
this evening as storms push off the west coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be
possible today. For the work week high pressure will push over the
area which will stop any shower activity from developing and helping
to dry us out. The driest days look to be Thursday and Friday where
RHs look to get into the critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  73  90 /  20  20   0  10
FMY  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  10  20
GIF  70  92  70  93 /  20  20   0  20
SRQ  70  87  72  90 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  67  90  65  91 /  10  20   0  10
SPG  74  87  75  87 /  20  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close