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000
FXUS62 KTBW 220005
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
805 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

No changes to existing forecast. A cold front is expected to push
across the state over the next 12-24 hours bringing showers and
the chance for a few storms, with a cluster of showers and storms
already having moved into parts of Levy County this evening.
Activity will gradually move south across the Nature Coast and
into C FL during the early-mid overnight period before spreading
into SWFL and locations south of I-4 during the latter half of
tonight and into Monday morning. Some patchy fog may develop ahead
of the front across southern interior locations toward morning,
however at this time that likelihood remains rather low, otherwise
mainly widespread low clouds are likely in association with the
frontal passage in addition to the rain chances. SW-W winds
continue into tonight before shifting out of the NW overnight into
Monday morning as the front pushes south across the area, with
breezier conditions becoming possible during the afternoon. Mild
overnight lows expected in the mid 60s to around 70 central and
south, with northern/Nature Coast areas a touch cooler in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some shortwave energy is moving across the northern Gulf coast
region this afternoon, with a southwest flow aloft over Florida. At
the surface, the high pressure axis has shifted to our south as a
cold front works into north Florida. For the rest of the day, some
showers and a few storms will make their way into the Nature Coast
and this activity will slowly shift southward tonight and through
Monday. The Storm Prediction Center keeps parts of the Florida
peninsula in a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon,
but this area has shrunk a bit and now focuses more on southeast
Florida. The main threat, while quite isolated, will be a few strong
wind gusts and possibly some hail. Rain will come to an end in the
evening, with drier air starting to move in over the region as high
pressure builds over the southeast. Some relatively cooler air moves
over the area, with highs a couple of degrees lower for Tuesday and
Wednesday, but the more noticeable difference will be dew points,
which will fall into the 50s for a few days. The rest of the period
features little to no rain chance and slowly moderating conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Largely continuity from previous cycle as reasoning remains
unchanged, with a cold front expected to push across terminals
tonight through Monday morning preceded by mainly showers, with
sub-VFR cigs developing during the early-mid overnight period and
persisting through late morning-early afternoon before improving
to VFR. SW-W winds generally 7-10 knots to open cycle, gradually
veering to W-NW overnight with FROPA before increasing to 8-12
knots with higher gusts late morning-early afternoon, potentially
as high as 10-15 knots with higher gusts during the afternoon as
indicated by some guidance.+

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the region today ahead of a cold front
that will move through the area tonight into Monday, with showers
and a few thunderstorms possible. Winds will become northwest during
this time and then quickly northeast to east through mid week with a
sea breeze turn each afternoon. Winds may reach exercise caution
levels for a time behind the boundary, but no further headlines are
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through the area tonight into Monday,
bringing some showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. Some
drier air will move in behind the boundary, with relative humidity
values dropping near critical levels for some spots Tuesday
afternoon. No Red Flag conditions are expected, however, but drier
air will linger through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  78  60  82 /  30  10   0   0
FMY  71  84  63  85 /  10  20   0   0
GIF  66  80  58  82 /  20  20   0   0
SRQ  69  81  59  85 /  30  10   0   0
BKV  59  77  51  82 /  30  10   0   0
SPG  69  77  64  82 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana