Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
277
FXXX10 KWNP 011231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 01-May 03 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 01-May 03 2024
May 01 May 02 May 03
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 2.33 4.00 3.33
06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.00
09-12UT 0.67 3.33 3.33
12-15UT 2.67 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.67 3.33
18-21UT 3.00 3.67 3.33
21-00UT 3.33 3.67 3.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 01-May 03 2024
May 01 May 02 May 03
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 30 2024 2346 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 01-May 03 2024
May 01 May 02 May 03
R1-R2 55% 45% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: There is a diminishing chance for R1-R2 (Minor) or greater
radio blackouts as AR 3654 rotates to and beyond the west limb.