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000
FXUS65 KTFX 152052
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
252 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Rain showers across southwest Montana and parts of Central Montana
continue this afternoon and evening. Near normal afternoon high
temperatures (cooler in the mountains) tomorrow then colder
temperatures for the rest of the work week. Gusty winds tomorrow and
snow begins for southwest Montana mountains and along the Rocky
Mountain Front moving southeast across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through tomorrow night... A closed upper level low
over southwest U.S. is bringing unsettled weather conditions for
Southwest and parts of Central Montana today and tonight. Rain
showers should continue into the early evening hours, with a
potential (50%) of a non-severe thunderstorm this evening with
primary concern being a heavy downpour, lightning, and gusty winds
up to 30 mph. Westerly winds across the Rocky Mountain Front and the
adjacent Hi-Plains region continue to gust between 25 and 35 mph
through this evening. After tonight, there`s a break in the
precipitation until tomorrow night when our next weather system
moves in from Canada bringing mountain snowfall Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning along the Rocky Mountain Front. The Madison
Range mountains in Southwest Montana could see about the same
onset timing of snowfall beginning Tuesday night and continuing
into Wednesday morning. Precipitation moves southeast into the
Little Belt Mountains and Central Montana overnight Tuesday into
the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Wednesday through Friday... Latest National Blend of Models (NBM)
4.1 data suggests 24 hour snowfall probabilities of greater than
2 inches of snow is above 75 percent for the mountainous terrain
of the Rocky Mountain Front to the Little Belt Mountains and
Madison Range Mountains. For Great Falls and Lewistown, the
probabilities are less than 30 percent for snowfall amounts
greater than 2 inches for Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.
Precipitation becomes more confined to lingering mountain
snowfall for Wednesday evening through Friday. Winter weather
highlights remain for this timeframe for locations to see the most
impacts, such as mountainous terrain, of winter weather (example
includes snowfall amounts). Temperatures remain well below normal
for this time of year, with highs in the 30s for Wednesday through
Friday and overnight low temperatures in the teens (with single
digits in the mountains).

Saturday through Monday... A return to near normal afternoon high
temperatures in the 50s and 60s is in the forecast for this upcoming
weekend into early next week with ensemble model guidance in support
for upper level ridging to return to the area. Dry conditions are
favored by the latest model guidance during this time period. Webb

&&

.AVIATION...
1128 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024 (15/18Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions are forecasted to continue for KCTB, KGTF, KHVR, and
KHLN through the TAF period. Westerly winds increase for these
locations throughout this afternoon, gusting between 20 and 35
knots that could continue through the TAF period.

For KBZN, KLWT, and KEKS, rain showers continue through 21z,
with potential for thunderstorms to develop for after 21z for KBZN
and 20z for KLWT. These should be quick moving storms with primary
concerns being lightning and gusty erratic winds with any developed
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. After 1z, the
probabilities decrease and VFR conditions are favored to return.
Webb

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  53  29  39 /  10  10  80  60
CTB  36  47  25  38 /   0  50  60  20
HLN  39  55  31  41 /  10  10  70  70
BZN  33  57  27  41 /  20  40  80  70
WYS  26  47  23  37 /  30  40  80  70
DLN  32  56  27  39 /  10  20  60  50
HVR  42  55  29  42 /  10  20  30  20
LWT  37  53  26  34 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday
for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gates of the
Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and
MacDonald Pass.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls