Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 190815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Stacked upper low currently resides along the southern Kansas and
Oklahoma border this early morning. The first round of showers is
currently dissipating northward. Meanwhile a swath of elevated
showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low forcing is
lifting north and east from south central Kansas. These showers are
progged to enter southern portions of the area in 1-2 hours with
a weakening trend anticipated as updrafts encounter a cooler and
more stable airmass. Therefore severe weather is not of concern in
northeast Kansas. Expect occasional moderate to heavy rainfall
throughout Monday as the upper system translates across southeast
Kansas into Missouri. There is a possibility of the rain mixing with
light snow towards far north central Kansas during the mid morning
as the cold air advection drops temps into the middle 30s. Snowfall
accumulation is not expected however rainfall totals could reach up
to an 1.5 inches by Tuesday morning. Temperatures across the entire
CWA are not expected to deviate much from morning lows in the 40s -
with readings in the upper 40s and low 50s.

For tonight, an embedded shortwave trough ejects into the central
plains, bringing an additional chance for precipitation. Rain showers
may mix with snow for areas north of Interstate 70 as sfc temps fall
into the low 30s. However, moisture availability is meager with only
a few hundredths qpf expected so snowfall accumulation is

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

By Tuesday morning, the region will be under northwesterly flow
aloft with an embedded shortwave briefly skimming across northeast
Kansas and potentially producing some scattered light precipitation.
With morning temperatures starting in the low/mid 30s, a brief
rain/snow mix may be possible before transitioning to rain. Surface
high pressure will gradually advance into the central U.S. behind
this exiting shortwave, with Tuesday highs staying cooler in the
upper 40s/low 50s.

By mid-week, a broad mid-level ridge will become centered over the
Rockies and gradually shift further toward the central CONUS.  This
advancing ridge will shift surface high pressure east of the outlook
area, resulting in southerly flow at the surface supporting decent
WAA through the latter part of the week.  With this pattern in
place, expect temperatures to steadily moderate from highs Wednesday
in the 60s to highs in the 70s/near 80 degrees by Friday.

Models show a strong mid-level low moving into the Pacific Northwest
later this week, with an embedded shortwave ahead of the low
tracking into the Northern Plains and causing the mid-level ridge to
flatten over the central U.S.  As the mid-level trough deepens over
the western U.S. and gradually progresses eastward late week into
the weekend, it will help to push surface low pressure into the
central U.S.  Models are coming into slightly better agreement with
the timing and tracking of this surface low and associated warm and
cold fronts.  However, there are still discrepancies with regards to
the amount of available moisture and where the best precipitation
chances may be. The GFS is the most aggressive with the amount of
QPF over the CWA, while the ECMWF/Canadian models keep the CWA
mostly dry with the better moisture staying just north of the area
Friday into Saturday.  As a result, only have some slight/low-end
chance PoPs in across northeast Kansas. Surface high pressure will
briefly skim across the area behind this surface low before the main
mid-level trough finally pivots into the central U.S., bringing
additional precipitation chances late weekend. Do not expect much in
the way of CAA behind Friday`s passing shortwave, with highs
Saturday only dropping into the low 60s to low 70s. However,
conditions may cool further by Sunday if precipitation develops and
keeps the region under overcast skies.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Still believe IFR conditions will develop over the next several
hours, more likely in the 8-9Z window when a break in precip looks
to move in. Terminals could be on northern end of more persistent
precip after 12Z, but IFR conditions still likely in stratus.
Improvements remain to be anticipated after 18Z, but MHK could be
on south end of precip in next weaker wave after 0Z. Will keep
VFR conditions at this time but will need to watch this.




LONG TERM...Hennecke
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