Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 150838
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Snow should wind down early this morning in far eastern Kansas, with
low clouds and breezy conditions lingering today and record cold
into tonight.

Early morning water vapor imagery depicted an elongated cutoff low
stretching down the middle of the CONUS. The parent extratropical
surface cyclone had shifted into the central Ohio River Valley, with
a trailing trough helping to maintain a moderate pressure gradient
and CAA over NE Kansas. With the mid-level cyclone finally lifting
ENE, the attendant deformation zone is also starting to slide
eastward. However, several localized banding enhancements moved
through Kansas tonight in an otherwise weakly forced regime. This
brought a light dusting of snow to many areas from Marysville to
Garnett. This overall complex should be departing the area around
sunrise, but did maintain the mention of isolated flurries through
mid-morning given continued radar echoes from KEUX and reports of
light snow in south central Nebraska.

A broad, nearly contiguous stratus shield is rotating around the mid-
level cyclone over the Mid-Missouri River Valley. This fetch should
keep stratus in place over much of NE Kansas through the day, with
areas that do clear out rapidly reaching their convective temps and
filling in with a stratocumulus deck. Recent RAP/HRRR forecast
profiles show this thin cloud deck lingering through the afternoon
as far west as Concordia. Have thus upped sky cover, especially in
the east, and lowered highs for today by several degrees under the
thickest clouds along the KS/NE border. These highs would likely set
records for low daytime maximum values. Northwest flow persists
through the day, with gusty 15 to 20 kt winds lessening from west to
east as surface ridging builds south and weakens the pressure
gradient.

There is some uncertainty on when exactly the clouds clear, but
given their shallow nature and partial diurnal origins, expect that
clouds will steadily clear this evening. A 1027 mb meridional ridge
builds southward into central Kansas tonight and sets the stage for
record low temperatures across northeast Kansas. By sunrise Monday
morning, lows should bottom out in the upper teens in north central
Kansas and mid-20s in east central Kansas. This should easily
approach if not exceed previous record lows for this date.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

A mid and upper level ridge will build into the Plains Monday and
into Tuesday as an upper level trough moves east into the Rockies.
Surface high pressure over eastern kansas on Monday will keep winds
light through the day. Highs on Monday will be slightly below normal
with highs in the 50s. Through mid week, the upper ridge will move
east into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening as the mid level
trough advances eastward into Kansas and Nebraska. This will deepen
a surface low through the day on Tuesday over eastern Colorado with
south to southeast winds increasing through the day as the low
deepens as it moves into western Kansas. A warm front is forecast to
lift north into east central Kansas. Tuesday night the mid level
trough is forecast take on a negative tilt as it moves northeast
into Nebraska Tuesday night. This will bring a dry cool front
through eastern Kansas shifting the winds to the west and northwest
and increasing through the day on Wednesday. Models continue in
agreement with any precipitation remaining north of the Kansas
border as the mid level trough move northeast into Iowa Tuesday
night and Wednesday so have kept the forecast dry. High temperatures
Tuesday warm into the 60s in far northeast Kansas to near 80 in
central Kansas. Temperatures on Wednesday cool back into the 60s
with lows in the 30s Wednesday night.

Thursday into the weekend will see the next chance for showers
across the area by Friday as another upper trough moves out into the
central and southern Plains. The slow moving nature of the system
will keep rain chances through Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

MVFR conditions expected through this afternoon and evening. There
is a band of snow or two possible of reducing visibility down to
2-3 SM for a brief period. Forecasting the exact location and
intensity is difficult to determine at this time so have added a
tempo group. At some point tomorrow the ceilings lift to VFR and
then eventually scatter out towards sunset.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Increasing southeast to south winds on Tuesday along with minimum
relative humidity into the 28 to 32 percent range will yield very
high fire danger for areas mainly along and south of an Abilene to
Council Grove to Burlington line. A frontal boundary moving through
Tuesday night will shift winds to the west and northwest. Northwest
winds of 20 to 25 mph along with gusts up to 40 mph on Wednesday and
Rh into the 22 to 34 percent range will raise fire danger into the
very high category across the entire area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Record temperature information for Sunday, April 15:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)   Record Lowest Maximum (Year)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Topeka         25F (1928)                     45F (1993)
Concordia      22F (2014)                     42F (1945)

Record temperature information for Monday, April 16:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)
--------------------------------------
Topeka         26F (1953)
Concordia      25F (1953)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Sanders
FIRE WEATHER...53
CLIMATE...Skow



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