Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 140504
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Please refer to the mesoscale discussion for convective initation
details...

Two areas of concern exist across the CWA through the the afternoon
and evening hours. The first of which is severe thunderstorms east
of a dryline/Pacific front which is positioned -- currently 18Z --
from near MYZ to MHK to ICT. Thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing across portions of central KS through the mid afternoon
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible for areas east
the aforementioned dryline position. RAP/HRRR solutions are
suggesting an increase in ESRH to 200-300 m2/s2 in the 22Z to 01Z
timeframe for areas in a zone from Brown county to Anderson county.
As a result, the tornado potential is expected to increase further
given the favorable conditions for streamwise vorticity ingestion
into low level mesocyclones. Thunderstorms look to push east of the
CWA by 01-02Z.

The other concern today is dangerous fire weather conditions behind
the aforementioned dryline. Short term solutions continue to suggest
RH values will fall into the 15 to 25 percent range this afternoon
with southwesterly winds approaching 30-40 kts. The most favored
areas for dangerous fire weather conditions look to reside along and
west of a line from MHK to EMP and east of a line from Clay Center
to Abilene. Winds are expected to shift to the west by mid afternoon
and further shift to the northwest overnight. RH values will
increase after sunset this evening with values reaching the 50
percent range by 02Z.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tonight, deep mid to upper level mid latitude cyclone continues to
deepen over the area.  As the pacific cold front catches up to the
dryline, CAA will ensue into the area overnight into Saturday
morning.  Expect a dry period until after the 03Z time frame when
initially rain will begin with wrap around precipitation as the
parent low continues to deepen and develop its deformation zone into
NE and working into area of north central KS.  Low will slowly
meander over northern MO into the day on Saturday.  By Saturday
morning winds will increase along with CAA and gradient flow around
the backside of the system.  Profiles gradually cool below
freezing.  During the transition, there will be a period of time
with possible light freezing rain.  However, this may be mitigated
by the currently warm surface temps as they take some time to cool
below freezing overnight.  A rain/snow mix will transition to snow
into mid morning time frame as profiles cool to well below freezing
and the dendritic growth zone could become more saturated as the dry
slot lifts to the to northeast of the area.  Only looking for around
2 inches of snow over western line of counties.  As the winds
increase to 35-45mph at times, there could be some blowing snow that
would reduce visibilities.  Therefore, have continued with the
winter storm warning and wind advisory into the 00Z time frame.
Could still have a wintry mix through the day over eastern portions
of the area as the colder air is delayed.

High pressure works into the area Sunday into Monday with upper
ridge working over the area into the early parts of the week.  Lee
trough becomes active again into Tuesday with possible elevated fire
danger as lower relative humidities and increased flow works over
the region.

Next weather system traverses the northern plains by Wednesday and
sends a front into the area with possible afternoon storms as WAA
increases general instability over the region.  Uncertain at this
time on how capped the environment will remain.

Temperatures generally increase to more climatological norms for
the longer term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Models are in agreement for deteriorating conditions through the next
24 hours. The more uncertain aspect to the forecast is timing when
lower CIGS move into the terminals and there may be some tweaks to
the forecast as I could be a little conservative on bringing the
lower CIGS in. Think the more likely window for precip will be
during the afternoon hours as the deformation zone moves overhead.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Record temperature information for Saturday, April 14:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)  Record Lowest Maximum (Year)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Topeka         21F (1950)                    39F (1928)
Concordia      23F (1928)                    42F (1983)

Record temperature information for Sunday, April 15:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)   Record Lowest Maximum (Year)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Topeka         25F (1928)                     45F (1993)
Concordia      22F (2014)                     42F (1945)

Record temperature information for Monday, April 16:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)
--------------------------------------
Topeka         26F (1953)
Concordia      25F (1953)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT
this evening for KSZ008-020-034.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Wolters



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