Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 200854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
354 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Diffuse large-scale baroclinicity over the region reflects the
rather unconsolidated upper-air pattern over the central states. A
weak surface boundary attendant to broadly cyclonic midlevel flow
over the north-central states is draped northeast-southwest over the
forecast area and will only gradually shift eastward today into this
evening. Residual, convectively-influenced Gulf moisture in
proximity to, and to the east of, this boundary will support
continued shower/thunderstorm chances through late this afternoon.
This will occur as subtle midlevel perturbations transit the warm
conveyor in southwesterly flow aloft amid weak capping. The diffuse
upper-air pattern will maintain a muted low-level mass response,
while ample convective processing to the south of the area and
related cloud debris should mitigate appreciable destabilization. As
a result, storms today are not expected to be severe, and this
activity should move east of the forecast area by early evening.
Otherwise, cloud coverage will tend to limit diabatic surface
heating today, with highs only expected to reach the middle 60s to
lower 70s. Clouds should begin clearing tonight. And, with light
winds and recent precipitation in some areas, some fog potential
cannot be ruled out late tonight. However, uncertainty regarding
cloud-clearing trends extends to the fog potential, precluding
mention of fog in the forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

On Monday...heights will rise as the weak trough from this past
weekend moves east and the next upper low drops into the desert
southwest. A weak mid level wave will move through the ridge on
Tues into Weds. Sct precip chcs may accompany this wave but better
chcs would appear to remain north of the area closer to any sfc-
850mb front. The upper low across the desert southwest is forecast
to lift into the northern plains on Thursday before dropping back
south Friday into Saturday. This would have the impact of forcing
any sfc front through the area with at least some chcs for precip
ahead of the front late in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Main change to the forecast is to delay the onset of the low CIGS
and am not as aggressive with the IFR CIGS either. CAMs show some
elevated convection developing across eastern KS before sunrise.
Coverage looks to be scattered in nature so have only continue
with VCTS for now. Otherwise the models are to aggressive in
binging the low clouds southeast compared to latest satellite.
It looks like MVFR CIGS could hang on into Sunday evening.




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