Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180532
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

As the sfc low continues to deepen eastward across Kansas, models
continued to slightly underestimate the strength of the strong
wind gusts observed across western and central Kansas, especially
in the vicinity of the triple point, currently situated between
Russell and Saline counties. Salina airport station has observed
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph the past hour with the likelihood
for the high winds to continue eastward across portions of
Dickinson, Morris, Geary, and Ottawa counties. For this reason,
decided to issue a short duration, high wind warning for these
areas where winds in excess of 60 mph are expected for the next
few hours. As the low moves across the CWA, wind gusts should
weaken, however remain gusty in the 35 to 45 mph range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Some cirrus overhead today as upper winds tap into the subtropical
plume, but drier air aloft was working into the area as a deep
upper trough works its way over the central Rockies. Local winds
remain east to southeast with surface low in northeast Colorado
with a nearly 20-degree temperature gradient across the CWA as
warmer air pushes north in warm-air advection over the boundary
layer.

Models are in good large-scale agreement with the upper trough push
quickly east across Nebraska tonight and surface low moving through
northern Kansas. Continued south winds ahead of these features
allows some decent moisture return, but under a stout EML. 500mb
heights will fall around 60m this evening in northern areas and help
weaken the cap, but may not be enough to allow convection. Will keep
a small pop in northern areas in the 02Z-08Z window, with any
convection bringing small hail potential in elevated CAPE near 1000
J/kg. Strong pressure gradient force behind the surface low brings
brief potential for winds near Advisory levels, but a more
persistent wind threat comes Wednesday as mixing increases before
the synoptic system exits Iowa. Could see a few hours of sustained
speeds reach Advisory speeds in the far southwest, but not confident
enough in this apparently marginal episode for any headlines yet.
Low cloud is expected to rotate southwest around the low tonight
into midday Wednesday, and will likely keep temps a bit cooler than
earlier expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Thursday remains quiet with upper ridge in place and modest north to
east winds but temps should still reach near seasonal normals. Next
upper trough approaches the area as the weekend approaches but
continues to track southeast of the area, keeping precip light,
though at least small chances persist through Sunday morning.
Another wave moving east across southern Canada helps keep column
temps from supporting any wintry precip.

Split flow continues into early next week for little of concern and
mild temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Main concerns with the forecast are the strong winds associated
with a frontal passage aft 09Z at KTOP and KFOE and 07Z for KMHK.
Current easterly winds will quickly veer to the west, increasing
above 20 kts sustained. Occasional gusts in excess of 35 kts are
possible with more persistent gusts around 30 kts through the
afternoon. In addition, clouds increase with increasing likelihood
for MVFR ceilings aft 13Z. Shallow nature of the moisture and
deeper mixing in the low levels should scatter out clouds,
returning to VFR aft 16Z.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Conditions Wednesday continue to support elevated fire weather
levels. Main change with this forecast was to lower temps a bit in
the northeast where low cloud looks to hang on longer. This limits
minimum RH values there somewhat. Very High fire danger is likely
for all of north central and east central Kansas on gusty northwest
winds. Winds will shift significantly tonight as a surface low and
cold front pass, shifting to the west to northwest late this evening
into the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
KSZ034>037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Prieto
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...65


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