Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 230841
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

As 08Z Monday morning the pesky upper-low and associated surface low
were positioned near the AR/KY/MS border intersections. Cloud cover
continues to rotate counter-clockwise around these features. Cloud
cover will continue to decrease from northwest to southeast through
the morning and early afternoon as the upper-low marches eastward.
At the surface, a ridge extended from the TX panhandle into southern
MN. The ridge axis is progged to overspread the CWA through the day
today, yielding light northeasterly winds on the order of 5-10 MPH.
A very dry lower tropospheric layer coupled with plentiful solar
insolation should yield a well-mixed BL nearing H8 to H75. Short
term guidance suggests H85 temperatures will warm to 8-10C this
afternoon, yielding surface temperatures in the low to middle 70s!
Coinciding with the warm and well-mixed BL arises fire weather
concerns. Currently have min RH values in the mid to upper 20s,
although latest RAP/HRRR guidance has values approaching 18-20
percent for areas along and north of I-70. That being said, light
wind speeds should temper fire weather concerns today. The surface
ridge remains overhead through the overnight hours, yielding mostly
clear skies and light winds with lows in the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

By Tuesday morning, a subtle weak mid-level ridge will quickly be
pushed east of the area as the first of two mid-level shortwave
troughs advances southward into the Central Plains.  Models are
finally coming into better agreement with regards to the timing and
tracking of this shortwave and its associated precipitation. At this
time, models are trending a bit slower with the southeastward
progression of this shortwave over the area, so have PoPs extending
from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. While some
models still suggest some of the better moisture and lift will be
focused along and south of the far southern edge of the CWA, all are
in agreement with chances for scattered precipitation across much of
the area so have continued to trend a bit higher with PoPs. Have
kept just the mention of rain showers as models continue to show
very little in the way of instability.  As this system moves into
the area on Tuesday, the gradual increase in cloud cover through the
day will likely result in a decent temperature gradient setting up,
with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s from west to east
across the CWA.  With scattered precipitation and mostly cloudy
skies looking to extend through much of Wednesday, temperatures are
trending a bit cooler with highs in the upper 50s/near 60.

Conditions should dry out briefly by Wednesday night before the next
shortwave trough dives southward into the Central Plains
Thursday/Thursday night. Models are trending better with this next
shortwave in having it dive far enough south to potentially produce
a brief period of light rain showers Thursday
afternoon/evening before quickly progressing east of the area.

The central CONUS will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through
early weekend as a mid-level ridge builds in behind this exiting
shortwave.  As surface high pressure progresses southeast of the
area by Saturday, expect dry conditions and a warming trend through
the weekend with high temperatures likely rising into the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions hold throughout the period with light winds
generally from the NNE. Clouds begin clearing more after the 12Z
time frame and continue through the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake



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