Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 190453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Passage of storm system to the east continues to bring impacts to
the local area via gusty northwest wind and cold-air advection,
keeping temps in the lower 40s to lower 50s at 19Z. Strong
subsidence helping to bring the stronger winds at the top of the
boundary layer to the surface with Advisory levels touched at times.
Continued modest cold-air advection will likely keep some gustiness
going into sunset, but continued weakening of the pressure gradient
should allow for much lighter winds by late evening. Much of the
cloud upstream has more of a stratus than cumulus appearance and may
see some patches move in overnight but temps should still reach near
freezing late. Light winds and good insolation should be the rule
Thursday with some possible cirrus later in the day but highs should
still reach the mid to upper 50s despite weak mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

The next upper wave slowly works its way across the Rockies Thursday
night and Friday with cloud clover slowly increasing. The wave`s
trajectory continues to be generally east-southeast, keeping chances
for widespread significant precipitation low. Temperature trends do
looks a bit cooler but hard to see anything but rain in the split
flow pattern. Late Sunday into Monday should remain dry between
systems, with the next wave entering Monday night into Tuesday,
though some timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF become
apparent by this time. Weak southerly low level flow ahead of this
wave keeps convection concerns low however.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Currently monitoring a dissipating deck of MVFR stratus across
Iowa, dropping southward into far eastern Kansas. As drier air
continues to advect on the back side of the system, the majority
of short term guidance is in agreement with the shallow stratus
layer becoming scattered as it impacts KTOP/KFOE aft 09Z. VFR
should quickly return as high pressure moves through, bringing
calmer sfc winds that gradually veer towards the northeast in the




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